Sigmaintell of China believes that average TV size will increase again by 1.7″ in 2018, up from a 1″ increase in 2017. The company expects the overall global TV market to recover in 2018, but only by around 0.3%. The combination of volume and size growth will mean an overall growth in area demand for TV by 8.5%. Like every other analyst, the firm expects demand to be stronger than usual in the first half, because of inventory building for the World Cup in Russia and because inventory is currently low.
The supply side will grow by 10.8% on a year on year basis because of new G10.5 and G8.6 panel fabs in China and Taiwan, but it will take time for yields to ramp up, so supply could be tight in the first half. That will mean relative stability in pricing with a forecast of 5.3% surplus. As the yield rises in the new fabs, this may change in the second half of the year.
Prices in the market have dropped in December with price reductions of up to $8. The company thinks that the tightening supply may push up 32″ prices in December, while other sizes are likely to continue dropping.