IHS has said that OLED will grow to dominate the TV market for sets that cost more than $1,000 which took 5% of the overall market in 2016, but more than 20% of revenues. In the last eight quarters, OLED TV has grown in that segment from 2.4% in Q1 2015 to 13.8% in the first quarter of 2017. The OLED share will rise to a peak of 59% in 2019, before declining in share as 8K TVs based on LCD technology start to take some share. Volumes for OLED TVs will rise from 723K units in 2016 to 6.6 million in 2021.
OLED revenues are forecast to grow 71% per year, ahead of the 31% growth that is forecast for UltraHD TVs. The ASP of UltraHD TVs in 2017 is forecast to be $2,247, which is six times higher than LCD prices.
Quantum dot LCDs are expected to compete with OLED, increasing from 4% of LCDs in 2017 to 15% in 2021, with Samsung shipping 90% of those units in Q1 2017.
By 2020, 8K LCD TVs will have launched in all regions, primarily at 65-inch and 75-inch screen sizes. At the early introduction stages, 65-inch 8K LCD TVs will carry a 35 percent premium against 65-inch 4K OLED TVs, but gradually reduce as capacity rapidly increases in LCD fabs optimized for 65-inch-plus screen sizes.
Analyst Comment
It will be interesting to see what Samsung will do at IFA to try to slow the progress of OLED in capturing the TV market. It may be that it will not show much publicly, but may wait until CES as it will not want to impact Q4 and holiday sales by showing something new in Berlin.
Samsung is holding a private event on the first day of IFA at a hotel to highlight QLED and HDR technologies, being run by our own Chris Chinnock. Readers that want to attend can ask for approval to attend. (BR)
