It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Now it’s going to be the ‘meh’ of times (hmmm… I didn’t quite rise to the level of Dickens there!). Because of the special working and learning conditions of Covid, 2021 was the best year ever for LCD and OLED makers in revenues and profits. However, macroeconomics, Covid lockdowns, Putin, and inflation combined to make 2022 the worst year on record, with record-low panel prices, weak demand, and what DSCC called “a train wreck of inventory.” Even OLED makers, which have seen continuous growth for the whole history of the industry, saw things fall back.
Looking ahead, 2023 will still see some oversupply in LCD, despite Samsung giving up on making LCD panels altogether and LG Display no longer making TV LCDs in Korea. That means unless there is some sudden and very unexpected boost to consumer confidence and demand for TVs, in particular, 2023 is going to be very weak. It shouldn’t be as bad as 2022, but recovery will be slow and hard. Someone may fall by the wayside—Sharp looks a possible contender for some kind of radical restructuring in the panel business.
On the optimistic side, Samsung’s QD-OLED should continue to develop as the best looking large-area display technology ever, and if Apple does actually release a game-changing VR headset, small display makers could see a big boost if Apple can create a bandwagon for others to jump on, as it did with the iPhone and iPad. However, it’s hard to get excited about the likely growth in demand for the display staples of TVs, monitors, notebooks, tablets, and smartphones.
In technology, there is going to be a very big story as the long-awaited breakthrough in blue OLED materials looks to be on course for early 2023, and during the later part of the year, we can expect to hear about some fairly dramatic changes in OLED performance in products slated for 2024. I expect Display Week in May to be abuzz with numbers and promises!
