A few weeks ago, I spotted a headline that talked about microLED as a disruptive industry. Such opinions are not rare, but this one was from Chris Riegel, who is CEO of Stratacache, a major player in the digital signage industry that has moved from content (since acquiring Scala in 2016) to distribution through networks to display devices. This week, I managed to get a chance to catch up with the webinar.
The session was one of a number put on by Avixa in a ‘Digital Signage Power Hour’ and is now available as a podcast on sixteen-nine.net and was moderated by Dave Haynes (right), who runs the site.
“The panel had Chris Riegel of STRATACACHE, who among a bazillion things is spinning up a microLED manufacturing facility in Oregon. We also had on the panel Reece Kurtenbach, the CEO of Daktronics, one of the oldest and largest direct view LED firms out there. We had Johanna Ocampo from D3, Rich Ventura from Sony, which introduced the world to large format microLED. Sam Phenix, who runs her own display consulting firm and is deeply involved with AVIXA and SID. And Florian Rotberg, of Munich-based consultancy Invidis.”
I logged into the session which started with a section by Riegel about LED that claimed that it is a disruptive technology.
Reigel (right) said that MicroLED will definitely disruptive and will move from digital signage to every aspect of displays and then into every aspect of life.
Reigel said that
‘display is a cartel like OPEC’
The barrier to entry for entering the business is $8 to $12 billion for a fab, he said. Like fracking in the oil industry, he said, the arrival of microLED will disrupt the market.
MicroLED has advantages over existing display technologies in performance and the capex will be at around 1/25th of that needed for a fab. ‘The genie is out of the bottle’.
There is no high definition LED manufacture (except very large LED displays) in the US, Europe or India, but microLED will allow the distribution of manufacture to the consuming regions. Reigel said that costs would be 32% cheaper than OLED or LCD, excluding the cost of fabs.
Innovation has been good, but not great he believes, because of the barriers to entry. With disruption in the manufacturing, many companies from other industries, including semiconductors, will enter. There will be a wider variety of displays available as transparent, flexible and ultra-low power options will become available, causing the display industry to jump from $200 billion to $700 or $800 billion.
The Panel Responds
The panel was a good one, but was less sure of the change. Kurtenbach (right) said that
“Old technologies die hard”
and technology such as miniLED backlighting will appear, but there will be a range of LEDs from traditional SMD LED down to genuine microLED. He said it is hard to get your head around how many more microLEDs could be produced compared to traditional types, because of the tiny size.
Haynes introduced Ventura (left) from Sony by saying that there had been talk of a five year change to LED, and Ventura said that there is certainly a significant increase in interest in LED over the last year. He agreed that old technologies have life and even projection remains in the AV market.
Today, microLED doesn’t really exist, said Riegel with products in the market really miniLED, not microLED. He forecast that it would take another 18-24 months to ‘perfect the physics and transfer science’. However, the current factories will compete hard to keep disruptors out. If the cost could be lower then it will be harder for competitors.
Ocampo (left) said that customers are ‘used to the price’ of LED but they really want to ‘fill the walls’ with their content.
The Impact of Covid
Haynes asked about the impact of Covid on the demand in the market. Rotberg said that demand for large LEDs and signage continues with lots of new flagship stores and prestige location projects, although he sees little or no interest in meeting room displays based on LED, as LCD and projection is ‘still doing fine’.
Phenix (right) pointed out that many projects were actually brought forward because locations were, at least relatively, empty of people. That included airports and casinos who have this year accelerated the installation of new display systems. She also said that large displays are being used to distribute live events on a regional basis, as people are less able to travel long distances to events.
In retail, the store is ‘moving to the kerb’ as retailers are supplying to those that don’t want to get out of their cars (see the talk we reported from Stephen Baker of NPD at the DSCC/SID Business Conference US TV Market Strong, but Low Priced for more on this topic). That is an opportunity for outdoor displays.
LEDs are also coming to the windows of stores to get interest from those passing by stores that have to do more to attract buyers in.
Conference rooms are changing to make bigger ‘huddle rooms’. Again, because there are fewer meetings, it’s easier to make updates to meeting rooms.
An LCD in an outdoor cabinet is still a lot cheaper than a full outdoor LED and that is still important. Where super-brightness is needed there may be an opportunity for microLED, but the best technology at the best cost will win in the end.
Kurtenbach said that there are still opportunities in stadiums and live event venues. Advertising in these places and areas of mass transit are being installed. There is a focus on the opportunity of ‘pent up demand’ to make the most of that business when travel starts to become more frequent. Live events where attendees have to travel a long distance will come back, but only slowly.
Ocampo said that in retail, there is a mixed response, with new opportunities because there is more broadcasting for example from eSports. Video is more important and that means LEDs needed in studios.
Haynes asked Riegel why it made sense to make a factory for microLED in the US? Covid has highlighted the problems of long supply chains, he replied. Building in the US should allow fully local supply chains. He also indicated that there may be a strategic value to having a US-based industry to supply displays for defence products. Riegel said that there is no chance for US makers to compete in consumer electronics, but you can be competitive in B2B applications. China can and will dominate consumer electronics.
Asked about the Sony Cledis technology, Ventura said that the technology is evolving in resolution and other aspects. Applications are evolving – it’s not a product for a single application.
Looking ahead at, for example, a 75″ microLED set, they might be available to rival LCD in the TV space in the next two to three years, but they would be more expensive. Especially outdoor, LED has a lot of advantages. Some consumers just want the best and greatest technology, even if it is more expensive, but that is a limited opportunity.
microLED, including smaller microDisplays, will facilitate a lot of genuine innovation in the use of displays into completely new areas, such as flexible and textile displays as well as transparent devices. New form factors are likely to be developed just as they have evolved on the desktop. Phenix has said that R&D has been slowed down by Covid. Rotberg (right) also pointed out that in Europe, where energy is so much more expensive, power consumption remains a real issue in many applications.
Kurtenbach said that there will be continuing innovations over the coming years, not just a simple change. He also pointed out that his firm has always made products in the US.
Questions from the Audience
A questioner pointed out that displays are not a cartel, where price is controlled, but a fiercely competitive market.
Apple is investing strongly in microLED because it sees this could be a disruptive technology.
Standards for mounting are tricky beyond around 55″ – 75″ because there is no single cabinet that is suitable and almost all larger installations are custom in some way.
Responding to a question about touch, Phenix said you have to protect the pixel in current LEDs with an encapsulation layer. She also said that since Covid, users are preferring to use their own devices. Rotberg said that touch on large displays doesn’t work. There is an ongoing demand for large touch screens, despite Covid, said Ventura.
Analyst Comment
Riegel is right in the sense that if microLED can get away from having to create large sheets of glass (or other material) with complex transistor arrays, then, feasibly, the flat panel display industry as we know it could be disrupted. However, it’s certainly not yet completely clear that the displays will be able to get away from the use of transistors on substrates. I am reminded that many years ago, when asked about OLED vs LCD, Bruce Berkoff, then of LG Philips, said that he didn’t care what kind of display used his transistor arrays. It was in those arrays that the key economic issues resided.
However, I did get some good take-aways.
- It reminded me that Sony’s Cledis was launched at Infocomm in 2016, so is now four and a half years in. Technology often takes longer to develop than some (especially start-ups) hope.
- I also don’t believe that displays are a cartel, although previously the CRT business was. However, it is an oligopoly!
- There are opportunities in studio and curbside displays that are the result of Covid. I also thought that the comment about the distribution of event video more widely is an interesting topic. Cinema has already done some of this, but perhaps will do much more in the future.
- I was interested to hear the comments about users preferring their own devices for interaction, which echo my thoughts from last week’s Display Daily. (Touch or Touchless Touch?)
