In 2023, DSCC anticipates that OLED smartphone panel shipments will rise by 4% year-on-year (YoY) to reach 608 million panels. However, revenues from these panels are expected to decrease by 5% YoY to $30.8 billion. This drop in revenue is due to average selling price (ASP) declines of 16% for flexible OLED panels, 21% for rigid OLED panels, and 11% for foldable OLED panels.
Flexible OLED smartphone panels are projected to rise by 13% YoY, increasing their market share from 66% in 2022 to 72% in 2023. Foldable/rollable OLED smartphone panels are expected to increase significantly by 68% YoY, although they will still represent a small part of the market at 4%, up from 3% in 2022. Rigid OLED smartphone panels are expected to decrease by 21% YoY, bringing their market share down from 32% in 2022 to 24% in 2023.
The report also digs into market share by brand. In 2023, Apple is predicted to get to a 37% unit share and 55% panel revenue share, while Samsung is projected to have a 21% unit share and a 19% panel revenue share.
For Q1’23, Samsung had a 38% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) increase in overall smartphone unit growth, mostly driven by its flexible OLED S23 series. As for Apple, panel shipments were just beginning in Q2’23, with the iPhone 15 series expected to represent 45% of Apple’s panel shipment product mix for the year. In totality, in Q1’23, the top three models in terms of units were the iPhone 14 Pro Max, iPhone 14 Pro, and the iPhone 14. Together, Apple and Samsung accounted for 64% of unit share and 76% of smartphone revenue share in Q1’23, largely due to the success of the iPhone 14 and S22 series.
Projecting for Q2’23, the iPhone 14 is expected to hold the number one position in terms of unit and revenue. The iPhone 13 and iPhone 14 series, along with the start of panel shipments for the iPhone 15 models, are expected to account for 48% of all smartphone revenue in Q2’23. Samsung is expected to account for 21% of all smartphone revenue in the same period.
