What Display Daily thinks: DSCC is still more sanguine than we can ever be about the AR/VR panel market because the reasons why the existing forecast has been downgraded remain unaddressable.
Take the concept of any hardware product idea or concept coming out of Google. The company is notorious for shutting down development, sometimes on a whim, but mostly because it looks for quick wins and big numbers, a sort of throw things up and see if they stick approach to hardware. I
Apple may be making noise about all kinds of possible scenarios for the future of the Vision Pro with an emphasis on creating a cheaper version, but when has Apple ever gone with the cheaper option on any product line. At this stage, there may be strategizing on missteps taken with the Vision Pro, price being one that has been raised numerous time, but maybe it is now just a case of saving face for the powers that be.
To solve the issues of near eye displays is to solve the problem of eyesight, an abstract,. Developers jump through hoops and twist themselves into pretzels to meet the highly individual nature of how everyone sees. No one wants to wear corrective lenses, and no one wants to have to wear a headset. You cannot keep ignoring the reality of market fit for AR/VR devices. Given that, how can you make any predictions about growth. Too many scenarios where the market may crash for these products.
There may be highly specialized circumstances where an AR/VR device may add value, but the price in discomfort for the user that comes with making a product that doesn’t have an astronomical cost makes any solution very, very niche.
The silver lining is that panel manufacturers who serve this market probably make a decent margin on delivering displays that few people will see or want to use. At the end of the day, a sale is a sale. Who cares if the panel ever lights up for more than a fraction of time.
AR/VR Panel Shipments Forecast Revised Downward for 2024
DSCC’s latest projections for AR/VR panel shipments in 2024 have been adjusted downward, with expected growth now at 12%, a significant reduction from previous estimates. Panel shipments are forecasted to be much lower than the initially predicted 19 million units.
According to DSCC, the revised forecast can be attributed to several market dynamics and product performance issues. Despite the high-profile launch of the Apple Vision Pro, it has not spurred sales of more affordable VR headsets like the Meta Quest 3. Additionally, sales of the Sony PSVR2 have decelerated due to a lack of new game releases for the platform. Meta is anticipated to release a new entry-level headset to replace the Quest 2, likely maintaining the use of a single LCD panel rather than adopting a dual-panel configuration. Given Meta’s significant market share, this strategic choice is expected to impact total panel shipments considerably.
In terms of financial impact, panel revenues for VR are expected to reach $781 million in 2024, with notable growth for OLED on Silicon (SiOLED or OLEDoS) technology, driven by products like the Apple Vision Pro and the upcoming Samsung/Google headset. Conversely, Sony’s decision to pause PSVR2 production is projected to cause an 83% year-over-year decline in AMOLED revenues in 2024. Production is expected to resume once Sony clears its current inventory.
Despite these adjustments, DSCC believes AR/VR remains a rapidly growing segment within the display industry. The five-year long-term forecast predicts steady growth, combining VR and video passthrough AR (Mixed Reality) into a single category due to their similar headset requirements. See-through AR includes smart glasses with waveguides and smart viewers like the XREAL Air 2.
