There’s a strong case to be made for one of these display formats needing to break out and help define where the most eyeballs are going to end up. Sure, it could be a mix of all of them, and there’s something to be said for different use cases, we can discuss all of those, but people don’t like to swim against the tide. They want to find safety in crowds.
Why is it so necessary to define a front-runner? Mostly because we need to think about the post-smartphone era. Before smartphones there were only computers, and they had very specific displays and monitors, not much about which has changed. Smartphones have had the same displays since they first started and they’ve followed the tried and true path of computer displays before them – higher resolutions, better contrast and colors, and more power efficient components.
Now, we have the likelihood of one major change to the computing experience, AI. You’ve probably OD’d of ChatGPT so there’s no need to add to the vast body of unscientific evidence that AI will replace everyone and bring about a massive adult re-education program that will turn your favorite aunt into a data scientist because, you know, that’s all she’ll have after Etsy is overrun by robots making funny meme tee shirts.
If we want to keep our eye on the prize, once the AI bubble bursts, we might have enough left over for a change in the human-machine interaction thing that we have today – check screen, point, push, click, look up from screen, rinse, repeat. What are we going to really need from our displays once our AI helper has become that voice in our head that tells everything we need to know?
For years, we have been mired in talking about VR, 3D displays, and now, foldable displays, but is any of that relevant to a changing relationship between the user and their computing device of choice? I mean, you don’t have to keep looking at icons, pointing and clicking, and trying to make out what’s going on when there’s something else doing all that for you, and just giving it to you in conversation, or as notes, or as fully formed end products of information.
I used to think that 3D displays would be great because 3D was just a big part of my early career in the computer business. I have, in recent times, become enamored of flexible displays because they represent the notion that any surface should be a computing surface which sounded great but wasn’t very feasible until it became apparent that we could wrap everything in a display someday – check screen, point, push, click, look up from screen, rinse, repeat.
In reality, both 3D and foldable screens have similar barriers to their broader adoption. If you don’t believe me, believe ChatGPT, it told me all this when I asked it about the pros and cons of each.
| Technology | Pros | Cons |
|---|---|---|
| Stereoscopic 3D | 1. High image quality and believable 3D effect 2. Widely available and affordable 3. Works with existing TV and video content | 1. Requires special glasses for viewing 2. Limited viewing angles and positions 3. Potential for eye strain and discomfort |
| Auto-stereoscopic 3D | 1. No need for special glasses 2. More flexible viewing angles and positions 3. Potentially more immersive experience | 1. Limited image quality and depth compared to stereoscopic 3D 2. Limited number of viewing positions 3. Potentially higher cost |
| Volumetric 3D | 1. High image quality and believable 3D effect 2. Immersive experience 3. Wide viewing angles and positions | 1. High cost and specialized equipment required 2. Limited content availability 3. Potentially lower image resolution compared to other technologies |
| Holographic 3D | 1. High image quality and believable 3D effect 2. Immersive experience 3. Wide viewing angles and positions | 1. High cost and specialized equipment required 2. Limited content availability 3. Potential for technical difficulties and malfunctions |
| Technology | Pros | Cons |
|---|---|---|
| Flexible OLED displays | 1. Lightweight and portable 2. High image quality and color accuracy 3. Improved durability compared to traditional displays | 1. Limited flexibility and bend radius 2. Potential for color shift and degradation over time 3. High cost and limited manufacturing capabilities |
| Foldable OLED displays | 1. Large screen size in compact form factor 2. Improved durability compared to traditional displays 3. Potential for multi-tasking and increased functionality | 1. High cost and limited manufacturing capabilities 2. Limited flexibility and bend radius 3. Potential for creasing and visual artifacts at the fold |
| Rollable OLED displays | 1. Large screen size in compact form factor 2. Improved durability compared to traditional displays 3. Potential for multi-tasking and increased functionality | 1. High cost and limited manufacturing capabilities 2. Potential for creasing and visual artifacts at the roll 3. Limited lifespan and degradation over time |
Which leads me to believe that our best hope for a future display technology is AR. It represents the best symbiosis of a conversational man-machine link with AI, and a display that can leverage that value visually. ChatGPT got a little overwhelmed and the system hit capacity before I could ask it to a similar table for AR displays as the two above, but I would imagine the cons are pretty much the same for all three.
In the old days, there might have been an Apple that could have given us a glimmer of hope that we could get a cool, practical, and available AR device. But Apple has lost its mojo and its design mindset. Display manufacturers like Samsung and LG are not going to cut it, either. This isn’t in their wheelhouse.
Big tech companies like Microsoft (invested in ChatGPT), Google (competing with its own tech), and Meta (making all investment virtually invisible in pursuit of the metaverse) would have a shot, but they have very narrow views of what they should or could do. Mature companies rarely change the world.
As for the startups, well, there isn’t one with any of the resources or applications or user base to make something happen. It would have to come out of left field – even Apple and the original iPhone had a built in audience, prepped for the device, familiar with iPods, rabidly enthusiastic about Macs, anti-PC.
AR could be the computing display of the future, the evolution and coming together of ideas and innovations that are ready to go mainstream. We just don’t have the technology to make AR consumer friendly enough and the product manufacturer-friendly enough, at least not quite yet.
