Both IDC and Canalys have come out with their worldwide PC shipment numbers. I decided to take the two and create a table that is a median value of the two sets of data. The information from Canalys is included in the next segment of this article. IDC’s numbers are reported in the latest news on the PC market. There really isn’t much that you can add here other than the shock of the extent of the decline, particularly for Apple. It feels like that dead zone period between Steve Jobs getting fired and Steve Jobs coming back with tutti frutti iMacs. The only bright note is that this just puts the PC market back on the downward trajectory of 2019 after the anomalous peaks of the pandemic.
| Vendor | Q1 2023 Shipments | Q1 2023 Market Share | Q1 2022 Shipments | Q1 2022 Market Share | Annual Growth |
| Lenovo | 12,714.50 | 22.50% | 18,279 | 22.30% | -30.30% |
| HP | 12,000 | 21.65% | 15,808 | 19.70% | -24.15% |
| Dell | 9,490.50 | 17.15% | 13,721.50 | 17.15% | -31.00% |
| Apple | 4,074 | 7.35% | 7,161 | 8.95% | -43.00% |
| Asus | 3,909 | 7.05% | 5,572 | 6.90% | -29.80% |
| Others | 13,250.50 | 24.40% | 19,589.50 | 24.45% | -32.40% |
| Total | 55,438.50 | 100.00% | 80,131 | 100.00% | -30.80% |
But that seem like too much good news. Maybe if we look at the channel data, we can get back to feeling more shocked:
If I read this correctly that says about 39% of the channel is way overstocked, and 28% is not looking bad, but it would be overstocked if Q2’23 reverts to Q2’19 levels, still a big drop YoY from 2022. You’re still looking at a good 3-4 quarters of adjustments, fear, and loathing before the PC market stabilizes and resembles something close to predictable.
Canalys Report on Worldwide PC Shipments
According to Canalys, in Q1’23, the global PC market experienced a significant decline, with shipments of desktops and notebooks falling 33% to 54 million units. This marked the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit annual declines. Broken down by product category:
- Notebook shipments declined 34% YoY to 41.8 million units
- Desktop shipments declined 28% YoY to 12.1 million units
Canalys predicts this will be the largest decline the market will see in 2023, with a recovery starting in the second half of the year and gaining momentum in 2024.
Inventory levels among channel partners have been decreasing but remain high:
- 39% reported having more than five weeks of PC inventory in January 2023
- 18% reported nine weeks or more
Significant market recovery is expected in Q4’23, with key growth drivers for the PC market including a larger installed base post-COVID-19, the transition to Windows 11, and both refresh and new demand from digital education.
According to Canalys, the top five vendors by shipments in Q1’23 were:
- Lenovo
- Market share: 24%
- Shipments: 12.7 million units
- Annual decline: 30%
- HP
- Shipments: 12.0 million units
- Annual decline: 24%
- Dell
- Shipments: 9.5 million units
- Annual decline: 31%
- First time below 10.0-million-unit mark since Q1 2018
- Apple
- Shipments: 4.0 million units
- Annual decline: 46%
- Asus
- Shipments: 3.9 million units
