We’ve had a number of “balls in the air” this week as we have been pressing on with our CES report while trying to catch up on the news for the last couple of weeks and plan for BETT and ISE. The CES report will be finalised by next week, but we are about to start publishing stories on the web as they go through our process.
I was struck this year by the feeling that this year’s CES event was like a Comdex (at the time, the major US and global IT trade show) I covered in the 90s. I had been going to Comdex since the early ’80s, before “the internet”. During the 80s and into the 90s, there was always a feeling that you were going to the event to find out and help to make a decision for the industry. I remember Apple vs PC, OS/2 vs Windows, Intel vs Motorola and, very early, DR’s Gem vs Windows but there were others. Before the event, the printed and email press was full of commentary and argument about a trend. At the event, everybody would be discussing the topic and by the end of the event, it would be clear which way things were going.
Then, one year, it was clear that the IT industry had already decided on Intel CPU architecture and Windows with Office (“Wintel” for short) and there was no big decision to make. That year, and for years after, the interest was in the details at the show, not in a single big question. CES this year had the same feel. As we will report in our CTA market summary, the “Magnificent Seven” product categories (smartphones, tablets, desktop PCs, notebooks, digital cameras, TVs and feature phones) take more than 80% of the value of all CE sales. Although there were some developments in each of these areas this year, there was nothing really new and all of these categories have flat or negative revenue growth.
All the new categories are either small (compared to these categories) or some way in the future in terms of serious value compared to the seven. 3D printing is “poised for growth” (I’ve heard that for several years, I think); AR/VR is interesting but also limited in value for some years, I think by the need for better devices and content; drones are interesting, but with limited display market interest; IoT is going to be big, but the complexity will mean steady rather than spectacular growth.
Fitness and wellness look the nearest to a big and quick market, but there are many different devices, most of which are single function. The market for diet books shows how much people care about the topic, but while there are lots of different devices, consumers may be limited in how they adopt them. The potential for displays is also limited as many of the devices (and probably more in the future) use a smartphone as a display device.
Automotive electronics is also going to be a big topic and market for the future, but the qualification period and complexity means that it moves quite slowly. Further, car makers are very conscious that a major long term problem is keeping auto electronics up to date during the 10 to 15 years that a car may be used and during which the owner will want the systems to work. Exploiting mobile devices might be a way to achieve this, but this need for longevity makes auto makers very conservative.
Anyway, there was plenty of detail for us to look at during CES. There were developments in HDR for TV, although that was a hot topic for us last year. There were new OLEDs in IT, which I cover in an article in this week’s issue. Samsung had a demo of a 170″ TV that was based on LED (we believe) and could re-configure itself (e.g. from 16:9 to close to 21:9). We’ll have lots for you next week, anyway!
Bob
