What Display Daily thinks: Apple’s too big to fail, even when it fails. I did the math on Vision Pro upsides using very basic conversion rates of existing audiences to prove that point. Someone’s multi-billion dollar sales opportunity is someone else’s carbuncle of failure.
But, there’s just something off about the whole Apple’s facing struggles narrative. For one thing, why expect Apple to be growing at all times when it is plainly big enough. It’s a mature company and it is unlikely to come up with another iPhone moment. The fanboys have to move on from the expectation that the ghost of Steve Jobs is circling the company’s headquarters and waiting for the right moment to make the second coming of the second coming.
The best thing you can do with the Apple numbers and projections is to see them as bellwethers of the performance of its suppliers, companies like Samsung and LG and BOE. And the impact there, even in a challenging year like 2024 is going to be significant.
Maybe, just maybe, what you don’t want to do is to consider Apple’s fortunes as a stepping stone to display development meaning that Apple isn’t going to lay the groundwork and fund your factories so that you can leverage them for greater glory in other markets. Apple either sucks up everything you got or it doesn’t.
That’s good news, at least in my opinion, because we need innovation, something different, something new to spur growth in displays. Foldables and transparent displays are great starting points in 2024. Apple’s got nothing there.
I also have a sneaking suspicion that most of 2024 is going to turn into a battle between Apple and its competitors at Google, Microsoft, and Meta on AI. All of these companies share a 2 billion large overlapping pool of users, and AI assistance is a game changer for them. Not because of the hype, but because of the perception of value that is being pushed for AI. So, Apple’s devices and software economy could take a big hit if someone else’s AI is doing a lot of the work that was traditionally done with apps and icons and pretty user experiences.
AI is an existential threat to Apple’s user experience, no matter what you may think about the realities of its capabilities. People, the normal ones who don’t sit in the forests of the tech business – surrounded by obfuscating, over-engineered trees – they might just like a simpler way of doing the fundamentals of their computing, letting AI assistants to the work that use to be done by their fingers and touchscreens.
None of this has anything to do with raising display performance or quality. Frankly, I think the only thing that people worry about with Apple displays, particularly on their iPhones, is how much it might cost them to replace a cracked screen.
Apple’s 2024 Doldrums
As Apple heads into 2024, the company is poised for considerable challenges, according to a report in Bloomberg. Apple is grappling with the prospect of a fifth consecutive quarter of declining sales, with particular concerns about iPhone sales, especially in China. The company’s guidance hints at only marginal growth in iPhone sales, despite a favorable comparison due to previous supply chain disruptions. The upcoming iPhone 16, although not expected to be a major upgrade, could still appeal to users of older models.
In the realm of artificial intelligence (AI), Apple appears to be lagging behind competitors like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Samsung. The company’s AI developments are focused on a large language model named Ajax, with plans to introduce AI features in iOS 18. However, these efforts might be perceived as delayed responses, especially in light of the rapid advancements by its competitors.
Apple also faces challenges in boosting sales across its product range, including the Apple Watch, AirPods, Mac, iPad, and the Vision Pro. The Apple Watch, in particular, encountered a setback with a temporary sales ban due to a patent dispute, although this was quickly resolved. The Vision Pro headset, while a significant new product category, is not expected to be a major revenue driver in the short term.
Regulatory challenges are another area of concern for Apple, particularly with the European Union’s Digital Markets Act. This legislation will necessitate changes in the App Store’s operation, potentially affecting Apple’s revenue and market strategy in Europe and possibly elsewhere.
Regarding the imminent launch of the Vision Pro headset, Apple’s retail stores are in full preparation mode, with staff undergoing extensive training for the new product. There is some uncertainty about the strategy for online pre-orders and the initial availability of the headset.
Lastly, the saga around the Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2 sales ban, although temporarily lifted, awaits further resolution. Decisions by US Customs and Border Protection and the Court of Appeals will be crucial in determining the product’s future in the market. Apple is exploring various solutions, including software fixes and potential legal settlements, to navigate these challenges.
