What They Say
DSCC has published two new blog articles covering its revised Quarterly OLED Supply/Demand and Capital Spending Report. One of the triggers for the revision was the news that Apple will use OLEDs in some of its tablets next year. (Apple to launch 2 OLED iPads in 2023). Overall, the firm expects ‘modest oversupply’ from 2021 to 2025 for TV OLEDs, while small/medium applications will be in ‘substantial oversupply’ that is expected to last for years, although it will decline from 44% in 2020 to 18% in 2025 with flexible display surpluses bigger than rigid.
LGD stays top for TV panel capacity, but will drop from 100% in 2020 to 52% in 2025, while Samsung will get to 26%.
In small/medium panels, Samsung had already dropped to 58% in 2020 and will further decline to 39% in 2025. BOE passed LGD in 2020 to become the second supplier by capacity, and LGD will be passed by CSOT and Tianma in 2025 to fall to the fifth position. There are a number of useful charts in the blog article, if you need more detail.
Overall, in another post, DSCC said that its revenue forecast for AMOLEDs is now $42.58 billion based on a 9% boost because of an increase by Samsung in its OLED notebook panel target to more than 5 million units and a boost in share of OLED smartphones as device makers focus on higher value handsets because of shortages. Looking ahead, the firm has increased its OLED IT forecasts for 2022 -2025 by 40% for tablets, 13% for notebooks and 238% for monitors. There are useful forecast charts for the segments of tablets, notebooks, monitors and mobile OLEDs. There are several useful charts including shipment by form factor.
What We Think
There are some very useful charts in these two posts, as often with the DSCC blog posts. I admit it, as a monitor specialist for several decades, I was intrigued by the forecast for monitor panels.
I was always a sceptic about curved TVs. However, I like and support the idea of curved monitors because there is usually a single viewer so you can focus efforts on the ‘sweet spot’. However, it’s tricky to make curved LCDs and much simpler to make curved OLEDs. That could give OLED a real advantage in that application which also has a premium so reducing the pricing challenge. (BR)
OLED Supply/Demand for Smartphone Panels 2017-2025
Annual AMOLED Monitor Panel Shipment Forecast, 2021-2025
Annual AMOLED Panel Revenue Forecast, 2021-2025
