According to a new forecast from IDC, global shipments of personal computing devices (PCDs), comprised of traditional PCs (a combination of desktop, notebook, and workstations) and tablets (slates and detachables), are expected to continue a slight decline through 2021. The forecasts shows PCD shipments declining from 435.1 million units in 2016 to 398.3 million in 2021, which represents a five year CAGR of -1.7%.
While growth for the overall PCD market is not expected at any point in the forecast, there are a few trends that continue to develop. Apart from 2018, notebook PCs show small but steady year-over-year growth throughout the forecast. Detachable tablets and convertible notebooks, which represent newer more versatile designs, will be the fastest growing segments in PCD with a five year CAGR of over 14%. Ultraslim notebooks are also expected to continue to grow quickly, with a CAGR of 11.8% through 2021. The other relative bright spot in the forecast is the commercial segment, which stabilizes in 2017 and shows growth in 2019 and beyond.
“Looking at the PCD market collectively can be challenging because of all the different product category trends that are unfolding,” said Ryan Reith, program VP. “When looking at tablets we continue to expect that category to decline as the appeal of slate devices diminishes and life cycles for these devices look more like those of PCs 4-5 years ago. Detachable tablets will continue to grow, but we’ve reduced the short-term forecast on the assumption that OEMs are making a slower transition from notebook PCs to detachables than previously expected. The good news for this space is that both consumers and commercial buyers are opening up to Windows 10, and we are already at a point where Windows detachables represents more than 50% of shipments in the category. This should continue throughout the forecast.”
Loren Loverde, also a VP said, “Commercial and particularly consumer users continue to stretch the life of older PCs – constraining their spending and spreading usage across a portfolio of devices. Shipments could pick up if accelerators like economic conditions, adoption of gaming, VR, and Windows 10 speed up, but even in the best case, overall growth would likely remain limited.”
Analyst Comment
The stability of the market is shown by the similarity between this forecast from IDC and its last forecast six months ago. (BR)
