What They Say
DSCC added to the gloom in the display industry when it confirmed its forecast that the smartphone OLED panel market will decline by 13% in unit terms this year to 554 million and by 5% in revenue terms from $33 billion to $31 billion. Smartphone brands continue to reduce their procurement.
Flexible OLED smartphone panels are expected to increase 6% Y/Y and account for a 65% unit share, up from 54% in 2021. Rigid OLED smartphone panels are expected to decline 38% Y/Y and account for a 32% unit share, down from 45% in 2021. This is the result of Chinese flexible OLED makers dropping prices to get closer to rigid OLEDs which makes rigid less attractive. The firm said that last year, the price for flexible OLED was double that of rigid. but now they are ‘very close’.
Looking ahead, OLEDs should continue to take share and OLEDs should rise by 9% in 2023, with flexible up by 14% to a 68% unit share. Foldable/rollable OLED smartphone panels should increase by 34% Y/Y to a 4% unit share and rigid OLED smartphone panels will decline by 3% Y/Y for a 28% unit share. That shift is expected some brands to drop rigid OLEDs completely and that will mean that in 2023 rigid OLED will be down 14% in revenue and 3% in units after falls of 4% in rigid OLED revenues this year.
The blog also looks at results by supplier and SDC is expected to remain dominant with 67% of revenues in 2022, followed by LGD with 10%, BOE with 8% and Visionox with 3%. BOE is expected to grow to 12% next year as SDC declines to 57%.
Finally, there is data on brand purchases which highlights that the top five models in Q3 2022 are all from Apple.
What We Think
OLED has been on the rise for a long time, but in the end if the applications don’t grow, things can get tough. Rigid OLED is getting very squeezed between flexible OLED and LTPS LCD. It seems likely that there will be more of a push to use the capacity for IT applications. SDC has the new G8.7 fab lined up for 2024, but using smartphone capacity released by this pressure may help to make the IT OLED market grow more steadily. (BR)
Annual OLED Smartphone Panels by Substrate, 2020 -2023
Source: DSCC Advanced Smartphone Display Shipment and Technology Report
