What Display Daily thinks: When the goose that lays the golden egg decides that it is a horse, everyone has to go along with it because the goose is laying golden eggs and no one wants to upset it and stop the flow. That seems to be the case with the Alt-Reality strategies of Meta and Apple.
Both companies claim to have about 2 billion users. That’s enough for a few million unit sales just based on conversion rates for spam emails. Yet, we are seeing exponential investments in these products with no commensurate return on those investments.
That makes no sense, but you can’t say that when you have juggernauts going at full speed and ploughing through any barriers. Mark Gurman is consistently the most informed Apple watcher online, and yet he is seemingly backtracking on some of the expectations for the Vision Pro. It’s heavy and a pain to wear? Maybe that was obvious from every demo that we have seen, staged or otherwise.
Normal companies, without juggernaut-like momentum, would have a hard time making these investments with little to show for their efforts, and it is very little by comparison to expectations. I would say that it is neither prudent nor fashionable to criticize two of the biggest companies in the world. Let the goose lay the golden eggs and if it wants to be horse then, it’s a horse, why argue.
The real problem, at least for our industry, is the diversion of resources and attention that is going into the display technology. Take MicroLEDs. They are the future of displays and not of Alt-Reality products. Maybe all the exponential investment in Alt-Reality displays will enable faster development of mass market MicroLEDs, but it may also be focusing the technology on solving a problem that doesn’t translate into a bigger opportunity.
The Apple Whisperer Becomes the Apple Apologist
Mark Gurman of Bloomberg recently wrote an insider look at the future product roadmaps for augmented reality and virtual reality headsets at Apple and Meta. In it, he tries to paint a picture of Apple and Meta racing to release their next-gen headsets – Apple’s Vision Pro and Meta’s Quest 3 – even as they are working on follow-up models to address issues and lower costs.
A main focus for Apple is reducing weight and size to improve comfort, as the Vision Pro causes neck strain due to its bulk. Meta aims to cut pricing to make their headsets more mass market. Nevertheless, Apple has confidence the Vision Pro is superior with its high-res cameras, powerful chip, and crisp displays. But there are concerns about consumer demand for its $3,500 price point.
Meta believes it has the better gaming ecosystem and more affordable $500 price for Quest 3. But Apple’s brand and product polish gives it an edge that could boost mixed reality adoption. Meta is planning a cheaper Quest headset using lower-cost components to better compete on price. They will reposition Quest 3 as mid-range and try again at a high-end successor to the failed Quest Pro. Controllers add significant cost, so an entry-level Meta headset may rely on hand tracking alone. Apple is not bundling controllers to enable advanced hand/eye tracking.
For its next Vision Pro, Apple wants lighter weight and more glasses-friendly design. Offering prescription lenses has proven complex, but custom factory integration could help. Interestingly enough, Meta’s ultimate goal is AR glasses by 2025, using its new Ray-Bans to test smart glass features like taking photos and video. Apple paused AR glasses development but may revive it later.
