Worldwide digital TV (DTV) homes will rise by 185% between 2010 and 2021, or almost 1.1 billion, according to Digital TV Research. In 2016 alone, the total will climb by 120 million, and by 497 million between 2015 and 2021.
At the end of the forecast period, worldwide DTV penetration will reach 98.3%, from 40.4% at end-2010 and 74.6% at end-2015. 98 countries will be fully digital by 2021, compared to two at the end of 2010 and 24 at the end of 2015.
APAC will experience the largest rise, with the number of DTV households climbing by 2014 million between 2015 and 2021. 84 million will be added in 2016. Almost 65% of the 497 million households to be added between 2015 and 2021 will come from APAC.
Over the 2015-2021 period, Sub-Saharan Africa will more than double its DTV base, and LATAM will come close to the same. Eastern Europe will triple its DTV homes between 2010 and 2021.
China will add 114 million homes from 2015 to 2021 (totalling 453 million), while India will add 80 million. India overtook the USA to become the second-largest DTV market in the world last year. These three countries will account for 46.2% of the global total by 2021.
Indonesia, adding 36 million DTV households, will jump from 22nd place in 2015 to 7th in 2021.
Global pay-TV subscribers will top 1 billion in 2021, up from 907 million in 2015. 60% (647 million) of these will come from APAC. China will lead the APAC market, at 329 million at end-2021, followed by 178 million in India and 95 million in the USA.
Pay-TV penetration was 57.8% at end-2015. DTVR believes that it will reach 63.4% by end-2021. Penetration at this time will range from 80.3% in North America (slowly falling as cord-cutting has a limited impact) to 24.2% in MEA.
