What Display Daily thinks: I have been less than excited by the prospects of MR headsets, particularly the Vision Pro, but that’s irrelevant to what the numbers say. So, here’s a more optimistic measure of the display opportunity, devoid of opinion on the efficacy of the solution.
| Year | Sales (Millions) | 0.1% Conversion | 1.0% Conversion | 3.0% Conversion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 191.00 | 0.19 | 1.91 | 5.73 |
| 2020 | 206.00 | 0.21 | 2.06 | 6.18 |
| 2021 | 240.00 | 0.24 | 2.40 | 7.20 |
| 2022 | 225.00 | 0.23 | 2.25 | 6.75 |
| 2023 | 230.00 | 0.23 | 2.30 | 6.90 |
| 2024 | 234.60 | 0.23 | 2.35 | 7.04 |
| 2025 | 239.29 | 0.24 | 2.39 | 7.18 |
| 2026 | 244.08 | 0.24 | 2.44 | 7.32 |
| 2027 | 248.96 | 0.25 | 2.49 | 7.47 |
The table above is interesting only in so far as it gives a very rough measure of what the volumes would be for a Vision Pro assuming very basic conversion rates for iPhone users. The assumption for 2024, if you believe Apple, is that it would be converting Vision Pro users at the rate of 0.2% of iPhone sales – I know that’s not how they couch it, but that’s how it could work out. For every thousand people buying an iPhone, there’s bound to be one or two who will buy a Vision Pro just because, well, you probably know at least one rabid iPhone user yourself and they’d probably buy a cow pat with Apple’s logo given the choice.
Now, let’s assume that Apple has the requisite parts supplies and it can find the right price point for the product, then it ups conversions at 1% or 3%, which would be the more successful metric. That’s anywhere from $3B to $24B in sales by 2027. It’s anywhere from $650M to $1.5B in display sales. You can fudge the numbers yourself. The conversion points are really what interests me.
| Year | iPhone Sales (Millions) | Apple Watch Sales (Millions) | Apple Watch as % of iPhone Sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 191 | 30.7 | 16.07% |
| 2020 | 206 | 43.1 | 20.92% |
| 2021 | 240 | 46.1 | 19.21% |
| 2022 | 225 | 53.9 | 23.96% |
| 2023 | 230 | 55.0 | 23.91% |
If you compare that back of the envelope calculation to Apple Watch sales as a percentage of iPhone sales, you have to believe that the really successful conversion point for Vision Pro is about 10-17.5% of iPhone sales. That’s really unlikely. There’s a big difference between a smart watch that sells for a fraction of the price of its phone mate.
You could compare the Vision Pro to Apple’s Studio displays because, according to the marketing, it’s kind of a replacement device. But those numbers are not going to cut it because you’d need 100% conversion rates and then some.
You could compare it to the Meta Quest headsets, and think that given the price premium, Apple could sell a quarter or a half of Meta’s numbers, and that would be between a couple of million and seven million units. So, maybe it all makes sense.
So, yeah, there is a reason why money is going into these headsets. The reason is also why big tech companies are so bad at innovation sometimes, because it’s just a decimal point conversion of the really big user numbers they have. You could sit on a busy corner and just put out a cup and a sign that asks for money. Same business model. You’ll walk away with something, maybe a lot if the mood of the crowd is right.
The mood of the crowd is right for MR and its being driven by hype more than substance. As a purist, that offends me, but as a businessman, I get it. Given a big enough user base, and the fact that you can fool some of the people all of the time (0.1-1% conversion rates), you can pretty much sell anything you want. So, Happy New Year, go make some microdisplays and make some money and leave the maniacal puritanism to me.
Apple Changing Vision Pro Displays in the Future
The Elec has reported on an Omdia report that predicts Apple will be looking at OLEDos technology for a future version of the Vision Pro, at some point beyond 2026. Apple is expected to ship under 500,000 Vision Pros in 2024, with a strong sense that the first products will hit store shelves in February. The limitations on the product are, to some extent, set by the limited availability of the OLEDos display modules from Sony. The silicon wafers are being managed by TSMC, but Sony is getting less than 50% yields, according to the report.
Being a Korean publication, The Elec is obviously optimistic about what this means for both LG and Samsung, the latter specifically because of its acquisition of eMagin and its OLEDos capabilities. LG is already supplying the external OLED display.
