The Elec is reporting that the launch of 13-inch and 15-inch OLED MacBooks has reportedly been delayed until 2027. Initial industry speculation suggested a possible release around 2026, but recent developments have indicated a need for a revised timeline.
The issues may be both technical and economic. The OLED MacBooks may employ oxide TFTs and hybrid OLED technology. To manufacture OLED MacBook panels using the 8th generation OLED lines of panel makers like Samsung Display, the use of oxide TFTs is considered essential. While the existing 6th generation OLED lines already mass-produce LTPO TFTs, the development of low-temperature polycrystalline silicon (LTPS) TFTs for the 8th generation OLED lines is still pending. The completion of LTPS TFT technology is a prerequisite for applying LTPO TFTs. If the first OLED MacBook is slated for a 2027 release, the required panels must enter mass production in 2026.
On the economic front, MacBooks have experienced sluggish sales with a 30% decline from October 2022 to March 2023 compared to the previous year. This decrease is attributed to waning demand from consumers following the pandemic surge. This year, Apple’s MacBook production is projected to reach 20 million units, reflecting a 21% decline year-on-year (YoY). Annual MacBook shippments were 14.42 million units in 2020, 25.5 million units in 2021, and 25.2 million units in 2022. Overall, Apple’s PC shipments have seen dramatic drops in volumes.
| Rank | Company | 1Q23 Shipments (million units) | 1Q23 Market Share (%) | 1Q22 Shipments (million units) | 1Q22 Market Share (%) | 1Q23/1Q22 Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lenovo | 12.7 | 22.4 | 18.3 | 22.8 | -30.3 |
| 2 | HP Inc. | 12.0 | 21.1 | 15.8 | 19.7 | -24.2 |
| 3 | Dell Technologies | 9.5 | 16.7 | 13.7 | 17.1 | -31.0 |
| 4 | Apple | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | -40.5 |
| 5 | ASUS | 3.9 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 6.9 | -30.3 |
| Others | 14.7 | 25.9 | 19.9 | 24.8 | -26.0 | |
| Total | 56.9 | 100.0 | 80.2 | 100.0 | -29.0 |
Among all MacBooks, demand for the MacBook Pro has been significantly lackluster. Apple’s panel purchases for the MacBook Pro are anticipated to decrease by 51% to 7.25 million units this year, down from 14.91 million units in the previous year. Conversely, panel purchases for the lower model MacBook Air are expected to rise by 19% from 12.35 million units last year to 14.75 million units this year. The MacBook Pro incorporates oxide TFT technology, while the MacBook Air utilizes amorphous silicon (a-Si) TFTs. The limitations of amorphous silicon TFTs, such as low electron mobility, make it challenging to implement high-resolution screens.
