What They Say
DSCC published extracts from its forecast for Advanced TV report and predicted that the value of that market (QD LCD, 8K, QD-OLED, OLED, MiniLED and microLED sets) will rise to $36.1 billion with a CAGR of 17% and with volume rising to 34.6 million. For the full year 2022, the firm expects Advanced TV shipments to increase by 13% Y/Y to 22.1 million units and revenues to increase by 8% to $29.5 billion.
OLED TV revenues will be flat this year with 4% growth in units, because of the increased share of <55″ units, but 65″ OLED TVs will decline in both units and revenue for the full year 2022 as they face competition from aggressively priced 65” MiniLED and QD LCD TVs. LCD panel prices for 65” have plummeted this year as they are efficiently made on abundant Gen 10.5 capacity. However, OLED TV revenues, including QD-OLED, will grow by 14% to $13.9 billion in 2026. We expect that MicroLED will emerge as the super-premium TV to capture $1.5B or 4% of Advanced TV revenues with only 0.1% of units.
Advanced LCD TV units are expected to increase by 17% Y/Y to 15.0M units with revenues increasing 14% Y/Y and that revenues will grow by 13% to $20.7 billion. Growth will be concentrated in 75” and larger sizes. Shipments of 75” Advanced LCD TVs are expected to increase by 33% Y/Y while shipments of even larger sets are expected to increase by 48% Y/Y to more than 900K units.
The article also looks at the forecast by region, the size forecast for QD-OLED and miniLED by screen size.
What We Think
Given the comments about the potential cost reduction of QDs in LCD to get into the mainstream and the potential for some cost reduction in OLEDs because of better blue materials, one the one hand, this forecast seems conservative. However, the TV business is fundamentally conservative and price driven so the success of better products is never without a real battle in the market to get the consumer to dig deeper! (BR)
Quarterly Advanced TV Shipments by Screen Size and Technology, 2020 to Q1’23
Source: DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report
Advanced TV Shipments by Screen Size and Technology, 2018 to 2026
