What They Say
DSCC said that for the fourth consecutive quarter it has downgraded it display capacity forecast as more delays and cancellations are recognised in the face of weak demand and poor pricing. The firm now says that it will be the second half of 2023 before LCD TV panels rise to higher than cash cost.
2021-2026 display capacity CAGR was downgraded from 3.3% to 2.5%. OLEDs for mobile & IT as well as TV will continue to take share and Korea’s share will drop to 9% by 2027. Oxide technologies will grow from 8% to 10% share and BOE will still be the largest in 2027 at 27% but with just 3% CAGR. Samsung’s flexible OLED CAGR is forecast at just 1% with the firm’s share dropping to 29% from 40%.
There are charts of forecast by maker and for China’s share by technology/application on the blog (registration required)
What We Think
As usual with one of Ross’s blogs, there is a lot of other data in the blog. Still, any reduction in capacity expansion will help the eventual tightening of supply which should allow prices to rise again. As often when you’re at the bottom of a cycle, it’s hard to see what leads to a way out, but history shows that there is usually one! (BR)
DSCC’s Latest Display Capacity Forecast, Growth and Change
