What They Say
DSCC said that the expected production of foldable shipments has been reduced from an earlier estimate of 5.4 million down to 2.9 million – a reduction of 46%. That would mean that the market would be down 54% QoQ and 26% YoY. The main factor is slow sell-through of the Z Flip 4 and Z Fold 4. Over the year as a whole, there will be some growth, but only in the ‘ mid-single digits’. As well as Samsung’s sales being weaker than hoped, a number of Chinese models are ramping more slowly or will be later than expected.
DSCC forecasts that over the year foldable panel shipments will be up from 10 million to 15 million (15% down on the earlier forecast of 17.7 million). SDC should ship 12.5 million panels (down from the forecast of 15 million) with 11.5 million going to Samsung Electronics and a million to others. Smartphones (rather than panels) to reach 13.2 million from 7.9 million last year and a previous forecaxt of 15.3 million.
The article also includes a chart of panel procurement for Samsung’s models in 2021 and 2022, which highlights the big drop in Q4 after good YoY growth in Q3.
What We Think
Wow, this is a big change! I’m trying to remember if I have ever seen such a big change in such a near term forecast by DSCC. The current macroeconomic conditions seem to be hitting the high end of the Samsung range harder than it is hitting the iPhone. (BR)
Previous and Current Foldable Smartphone Panel Shipment Forecast
