After a year of weak growth for the LCD TV industry in 2013, worldwide shipment growth has accelerated every quarter in 2014, with total units rising more than 10% in Q3’14.
The latest Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report from DisplaySearch, now part of IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), has raised the global forecast for 2014 LCD TV shipments to 223 million units, up 7% Y/Y on a unit basis and up 16% Y/Y on an area basis. The LCD TV shipment outlook for 2015 was also increased to 239 million units, as recent growth trends appear to be sustainable.
“LCD TV shipments from manufacturers to retailers in the third quarter were stronger than expected in several regions, but especially in North America and Asia-Pacific,” said Paul Gagnon, director of TV research for DisplaySearch. “Growth in these regions is driven by a new wave of replacement activity. North American consumers are replacing older flat-panel TVs, and consumers in India and other Asia-Pacific countries are replacing CRT TVs.”
Figure: Worldwide LCD TV Shipments
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report
Consumers continue to trade up to larger screen sizes, increasing the average size of LCD TV shipments 5% to 39”, which is more than 1.5” larger than last year. This increase in average size, combined with stronger unit growth, is fueling renewed investment in LCD panel production capacity. Larger sizes have also contributed to revenue growth and have helped to stabilize overall industry prices, on a volume-weighted basis. The shift to larger sizes has also resulted in strong demand for 4K LCD TVs, which are expected to grow more than 50%, reaching more than 32 million units in 2015.
LCD TV shipments to retailers in North America increased nearly 24% Y/Y in Q3’14; however, year-to-date growth has so far significantly outpaced sales to consumers. “Very strong growth in North America in recent quarters warrants careful observation, in case an inventory glut materializes due to overzealous buying and selling at the manufacturer to retailer level,” Gagnon said. “A strong holiday season is needed to avoid an inventory hangover in early 2015.”
