What They Say
Bloomberg had an opinion piece that put the view that China could act against Taiwan ‘sooner rather than later’. The writer, a Professor of Economics, speculates that action could happen in the next five or six years as the relative power of China rises and could manifest as taking over some disputed islands (the subject of the ‘Formosa crisis‘ in the ’50s.
The writer takes this view as he thinks that later China might be, relatively weaker, as other regions such as India develop, while Taiwan might be stronger. Also, China has shown itself as confident in cracking down in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, despite international disapproval.
What We Think
We tend to keep away from geo-politics, as we think you’ll look elsewhere for that kind of topic. However. we also like to act as a ‘radar screen’ occasionally pinging when there might be something on the horizon that might impact the industry. A dispute escalation between the US and China over Taiwan might make Trump’s trade actions look very mild. Arguably, the actions over recent years to isolate China, forcing the country to double down on having its own technology in semiconductors and elsewhere, makes it more rather than less likely to be able to act.
As I’m fond of quoting, “Engineering beats science and economics beats engineering, but politics beats economics”. (BR)
