As countries around the world continue to struggle with the COVID-19 pandemic, International Data Corporation (IDC) expects the global economy to face challenges as consumers and businesses cope with financial hardship among other losses. Due to these factors, IDC’s forecast for the global tablet, notebook PC, desktop PC, and workstation market has been lowered for 2020 with shipments expected to reach 360.9 million units, declining 12.4% year over year.
The market is expected to recover slowly in the following years with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.3%.
While the market suffered global supply issues in the first quarter of 2020, the supply chain has mostly returned to normal levels of production. However, logistics remain a major hurdle due to the greatly diminished number of commercial passenger flights, which often carry cargo, and the lower availability of ocean freight has led to an increase in transportation costs. Additionally, the closure of retail stores and varying degrees of lockdown around the world have also shifted demand in the near team.
“The increase in demand for PCs and tablets as more people work or study from home is likely to be short lived,” said Jitesh Ubrani research manager for IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. “Barring major changes in the trajectory of infections around the world, we anticipate many small and medium businesses to struggle to keep the lights on and consumers to focus on purchasing staples and other necessities in the second half of the year rather than seeking new computing devices.”
“What lies beyond this period of uncertainty is also a matter of uncertainty” said Linn Huang, research vice president, Devices & Displays. “Not many organizations know what their new normal will look like, but most understand it won’t be the same as the old. Twitter announced last week that remote work would be a permanent part of their operations, followed by a host of other large companies. The transition to a new normal where workers aren’t congregating on campus but working from truly anywhere should bring about a market expansion for notebooks in subsequent years once the dust has settled.”
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Personal Computing Device Forecast, 2020-2024 (shipments in millions) |
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|
Product |
2020 Shipments* |
2020 Share* |
2024 Shipments* |
2024 Share* |
2020-2024 CAGR |
|
2-in-1 |
65.6 |
18.2% |
76.3 |
20.1% |
3.9% |
|
Desktop + Desktop Workstation |
79.0 |
21.9% |
73.4 |
19.3% |
-1.8% |
|
Notebook + Mobile Workstation |
60.3 |
16.7% |
50.8 |
13.4% |
-4.2% |
|
Slate Tablet |
69.4 |
19.2% |
62.7 |
16.5% |
-2.5% |
|
Ultraslim |
86.6 |
24.0% |
116.7 |
30.7% |
7.7% |
|
TOTAL |
360.9 |
100.0% |
379.9 |
100.0% |
1.3% |
|
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker, May 28, 2020 |
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Table Notes:
• All figures represent forecast data.
• Traditional PCs include Desktop, Notebook, and Workstation.
• Total tablets include both slate and detachable tablets.
• 2-in-1 devices are a category including convertible PCs and detachable tablets. Convertible PCs are notebook computers equipped with an integrated keyboard and display that can be used in either a traditional notebook configuration or a slate configuration. A detachable tablet meets all the criteria of a slate tablet but is designed to operate with a first-party keyboard designed specifically for the device.
IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly P ersonal C omputing Device Tracker gathers data in more than 90 countries and provides detailed, timely, and accurate information on the global personal computing device market. This includes data and insight into global trends around desktops, notebooks, detachable tablets, slate tablets, and workstations. In addition to insightful analysis, the program delivers quarterly market share data and a five-year forecast by country. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis.
For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or [email protected].
