IDC has forecast a 2.7% fall in global PC shipments this year. Although still negative, this represents an improvement from the previous -3.7% forecast. Q3 shipments were down 0.5% YoY, but ‘most regions and market participants’ viewed this as a short-term gain, rather than a sign of recovery.
Mature regions’ PC shipments are still growing. Recovery in emerging markets has taken longer, due to a combination of the later impact from tablets; slower economies; and commercial replacements. Gains in Western Europe and Japan, which both performed above expectations, were driven by a rebound from last year and short-term factors, such as building inventory for Q4 and Windows XP replacements. Mature regions will see PC shipments fall again next year, and contract slightly through 2018.
The consumer market was slightly ahead of IDC’s projections in Q3, but a 5% shipment decline is still expected this year. Tablet pressure is waning, as penetration rises and these devices move to smaller sizes and lower price points. Competition for disposable income from smartphones and phablets is rising, however. The consumer market was also boosted by factors such as a rise in low-cost system availability and a rebound in Western Europe.
IDC’s Loren Loverde said, “In the best case for PCs, we’d see a significant wave of replacements as users who spent on phones and tablets in recent years decide they really need to update their PC. Features like touch or convertibility, as well as Windows 10, could make systems more versatile and appealing, along with lower prices”. IDC has seen steady progress on prices and new designs in 2014. Replacements are stabilising but not boosting PC shipments.
Younger generations are becoming more mobile and emerging regions are demanding converged devices (such as phablets). Because of these factors, the PC market will continue to face tough competition and be more focused on replacements, with limited growth potential.
