IDC has revised its traditional PC market forecast downward for 2025 and beyond. While the global PC market is still expected to grow by 3.7% in 2025, reaching 273 million units, growth will slow significantly thereafter, with projections of less than 1% annual growth through 2029.
| Segment | 2025 | YoY Growth | 2029 | 2029/2028 Growth | 2025-2029 CAGR |
| Commercial ex. Edu | 138 | 4.30% | 142.6 | 1.40% | 0.80% |
| Education | 41.7 | 6.70% | 38.2 | -0.10% | -2.10% |
| Consumer | 236.7 | 0.20% | 241.8 | 0.10% | 0.50% |
| Total | 416.3 | 2.10% | 422.6 | 0.50% | 0.40% |
Several factors are contributing to this new outlook:
- US tariffs on Chinese goods and weak consumer sentiment are negatively impacting the world’s largest PC market
- Tablet shipments are projected to decline 0.8% in 2025 to 143.3 million units, with a gradual decline expected through 2029 due to consumer saturation
- Commercial sector, particularly education and enterprise Windows 11 migrations, will be the main growth driver in 2025
- Windows 10 end-of-service is driving PC replacements, especially in Japan, which has seen double-digit growth
Despite these challenges, some bright spots remain. Workstation volumes are expected to stay healthy, and tablet demand in China is being boosted by consumer subsidies. While AI PC adoption has faced initial hurdles, IDC forecasts a more robust ecosystem to emerge by late 2025, with most new PCs being GenAI-capable by 2026.
