What They Say
DSCC said that it expects OLED revenues to drop by 4% year on year in 2022 to $40.3 billion because of faster declines in smartphones and slower growth in IT and game platforms. Describing the current economic conditions as a ‘perfect storm’. In 2022, by application, DSCC expects Y/Y unit and panel revenue declines for the following:
- OLED smartphones: 13% Y/Y unit and 5% panel revenue decreases;
- OLED smartwatches: 12% Y/Y unit and 3% Y/Y panel revenue decreases;
- OLED TVs: 4% Y/Y unit and 10% Y/Y panel revenue decreases.
Emerging applications still have growth opportunities in units and revenue (apart from notebook revenue).
- OLED notebook PCs: 10% Y/Y unit growth and 5% Y/Y panel revenue decline to $613 million from $646 million, with volume up from 5.5 million to 6.1 million
- OLED monitors: 582% Y/Y unit growth and 251% panel revenue growth from $57 million to $200 million.
- OLED tablets: 32% Y/Y unit growth and 31% Y/Y panel revenue growth;
- OLED game platforms: 70% Y/Y unit growth and 65% Y/Y panel revenue growth;
- OLED automotive: 105% Y/Y unit growth and 96% Y/Y panel revenue growth;
- OLED AR/VR: although this application has <1% revenue share, this application is expected to have over 2500% Y/Y panel revenue growth as result of development and product efforts by Sony, Meta and others.
In monitors, the firm expects WOLED panels in 42″, 45″ and 48″ to take 38% of revenues and QD OLED should take 32% share.
In notebooks, DSCC expects new G8.7 fabs coming online in 2024 to boost the market in the longer term.
Smartphones remain dominant, but with a reducing share of the overall market (see chart below). Flexible and foldable panels continue to increase in penetration.
The blog article looks at revenue by supplier and sees SDC increasing its dominance.
TV will take 52% of the market by area this year and the notebook segment could get to 10% by 2926.
What We Think
Useful information, as usual from DSCC. (BR)
