What They Say
I wrote a DD about OLEDs in IT applications last week (OLEDs Into IT – the Whys & Wherefores) and this week, DSCC has released a report about the competition between OLEDs and miniLED in these applications and in the ‘Advanced’ segments of the markets. Highlights in tablets are:
- Advanced display tablets rose 4% Q/Q and over 500% Y/Y to 1.8M in Q3’21.
- The Apple 12.9” MiniLED iPad Pro was the #1 tablet with an advanced display with a 56% share. The Huawei Mate Pad Pro was #2 with an 11% share followed by the Samsung Galaxy S7+.
- Sharp was the leading tablet panel supplier due to its strong position in the Apple iPad Pro. EDO was #2 and was #1 in OLED tablets, ahead of SDC.
- MiniLEDs led OLEDs with a 56% to 44% share on a panel shipment timeline.
- Competition in tablets is expected to be dominated by brand technology choices. Apple is the leader in advanced tablet displays and their display technology choices will be the largest indicator of which technology is likely to win this market. DSCC expects Apple to adopt OLEDs in 11” and 12.9” iPad Pro models in 2024 which will swing the tablet market from MiniLED to OLED as shown below. Improved OLED performance through tandem structures along with low cost/thin/light weight rigid+TFE implementations will boost the OLED outlook. We do expect Apple to introduce an 11” MiniLED iPad Pro in 2022. We also believe Apple will scale MiniLEDs in tablets beyond 12.9” in the forecast period.
Q3’21 highlights for advanced notebooks include:
- Advanced notebook display shipments fell 20% Q/Q while rising 370% Y/Y in Q3’21 to 1.2M. Q3’21 shipments were somewhat constrained by chip shortages. In Q4’21, advanced display shipments to the notebook market are expected to rise 152% Q/Q and 1050% Y/Y to 3.0M panels.
- OLEDs accounted for nearly 100% share in Q3’21, but MiniLEDs should account for around 1/3 of the market in Q4’21 due to Apple launching new MiniLED Apple MacBook Pro’s at 14” and 16”. SDC is also expected to enjoy significant growth in Q4’21 as it aggressively promotes its OLED notebook panels.
- The Asus Vivobook Pro 14 consumed the most advanced panels in Q3’21 followed by the Samsung GalaxyBook Pro.
- Asus had the highest share in Q3’21, but Apple is expected to lead in Q4’21.
- SDC was the dominant panel supplier in Q3’21 with nearly a 100% share. In Q4’21, its share will likely fall to 67% as MiniLEDs gain share.
- DSCC expects OLEDs to lead this segment in 2021 with an 84% share and to continue to maintain the leading share over the forecast period despite gains by MiniLEDs. Apple’s eventual migration to OLEDs will also help the OLED cause.
- The report goes into detail explaining how OLED performance will improve and how both OLEDs and MiniLEDs are likely to reduce cost to succeed in notebooks. The adoption of lower cost G8.5 oxide FMM VTE RGB OLED fabs will boost OLED capacity while reducing costs and the adoption of increased pin count LED driver ICs with more zones per chip and single sided backplanes will reduce MiniLED costs.
Q3’21 highlights for advanced monitors include:
- Shipments rose 44% Q/Q and 450% Y/Y in Q3’21 to over 250K panels and should rise 2% Q/Q and 189% Y/Y in Q4’21 to close to 270K panels.
- MiniLEDs led Q3’21 with an 87% share and should continue to dominate this segment through 2026. However, OLEDs will gain share from increased allocation at TV fabs in 2022 from LGD and SDC and optimized, lower cost fabs in 2025/2026 from RGB OLED fabs. The report addresses which OLED technology is best positioned over time in the monitor market.
- Asus was the #1 brand in Q3’21 with a 42% share and should lead in Q4’21 as well.
- 32” was the #1 size with a 78% share.
- AUO was the #1 panel supplier with a 61% share.
What We Think
I was going to edit these points, but it’s hard to beat Ross Young for succinctness! The article highlights the level of detail of the report including product/supplier and technology roadmaps as well as forecasts. (BR)
