What Display Daily thinks: On the bright side, foldables are, for the most part, going to be multi-display products so, the panel shipment numbers should outstrip the smartphone shipments by some factor.
That’s a good thing for panel makers, but the market gains for foldable smartphones is still disappointing. Cost and technology issues, almost always due to the screens themselves, are going to hamper the real opportunity. That’s why Apple can wait it out until it feels that the displays are up to standards that it would impose.
Maybe it is best to look at foldables smartphones as being successful despite all the counts against them. Foldables should be the future of smartphones, but it is hard to tell when the inflection point for them will come, when they don’t carry such a hefty premium, and when they don’t cause pause because of technical or reliability issues.
However, more interestingly, even if fordables continue to be niche and a fraction of the total market, they are driving Chinese brands’ growth and will change the balance of power in the smartphone business. They give brands like Xiaomi, Oppo, Honor and Huawei opening gambits for attention that would be hard to leverage with any other smartphone technology.
Android phones are plenty good enough but iOS phones still stand out as the standard bearers for user experience. If foldables end up making Android experiences stand out over iOS experiences, even if it is gimmicky applications or use cases tied to foldables only, that may be enough to erode Apple’s market position.
5% of the smartphone market is not insignificant but it’s just the tip of the iceberg. And, there is every chance that foldables will not evolve enough to become ubiquitous. This may be as good as it gets or it may be a decade before we get truly mainstream foldable displays. That may not matter if what is happening now helps certain brands create a wedge in the market. That’s the great thing about wedges, they just need to open up a little, tiny bit of space to be effective.
Foldable Smartphones Gain Market Share
TrendForce reports that foldable phone shipments are anticipated to reach 17.8 million units in 2024, constituting 1.5% of the smartphone market. Despite high repair rates and associated costs, the market penetration of foldable phones is projected to rise to 4.8% by 2028. Samsung, a pioneer in the foldable phone market, saw its market share decline from over 80% in 2022 to below 50% in 2024 due to increasing competition. Huawei has made significant strides, capturing a 12% market share in 2023 with its 4G Pocket S and is poised to increase this with new 5G models and the anticipated launch of a tri-fold phone. Motorola and Nubia have also made notable entries into the market with competitively priced models, while other brands like Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo have struggled to gain traction. Pricing remains a crucial factor in attracting consumers to foldable phones, driving brands to improve display performance and reduce costs. Rumors of Apple’s potential entry into the foldable market by 2027 suggest a future shift in market dynamics.
Just last week, DSCC reported a significant increase in foldable smartphone panel shipments, projecting a year-over-year growth of 113% to reach 9.25 million units in Q2 2024, driven by Samsung’s new Z Flip and Z Fold models and strong demand from Huawei. In Q1 2024, panel shipments grew by 46% year-over-year to 3.94 million units, with Huawei leading procurement at 55%, though Samsung is expected to regain dominance in Q2 with a 52% to 27% lead over Huawei. For 2024, Samsung Display’s market share in panel procurement is expected to decrease from 54% to 48%, while Huawei’s share is projected to rise from 18% to 28%. The market will see procurement for 38 different models, up from 35 in 2023. Samsung Display is set to hold a 57% to 25% lead over BOE in Q2 2024, with Visionox and TCL CSOT also gaining market share. Overall, Samsung Display’s share is expected to be 54% for 2024, down from 62% in 2023, while BOE’s share is anticipated to increase from 27% to 28%.
