What They Say
Gloomy news this week from DSCC which has looked ahead to try to see where the oversupply in the LCD business might come to an end. However, the firm’s forecast puts fab utilisation at just the low 80s of percent by the end of 2023.
The firm published its demand forecast which predicts a growth in LCD area – mostly in TV with growth in units and diagonal size. However, capacity is also to expand by around 5% in 2022 with another 3% in 2023. Demand growth should be higher than that, but there is so much more excess, that things won’t get tight again.
There is a chart on the blog showing LCD volume per region and by 2025, there will be relatively little outside Taiwan and China. By 2026, China will supply 76% of the industry.
Although the firm believes that the Crystal cycle will, eventually, turn to to shortage with rising prices, it will take some years. As writer Bob O’Brien said:
“the road to industry recovery is long”
What We Think
There are things that could still disrupt a move to the positive side of the Crystal Cycle. There have been hints that diagonal growth for TV might be slowing or stopping in some regions – that could impact. The other would be some kind of major breakthrough in microLED to dramatically reduce the cost. There is no real danger that OLED will seriously impact LCD in my view – the capex needed is just too dramatic. However, lots of companies are touting microLED as a technology that can be introduce with low capex. (BR)
LCD Demand Area by Application, 2018 – 2026
