What They Say
Korean OLED analyst specialist, UBI Research, quoted in The Elec, has forecast that there will be a shortage of supply of large OLED panels for TVs by 2024. Demand will increase from 7.2 million this year to 10 million in 2023 and 12 million in 2024. However, LG’s capacity is currently around 10 million panels, so without additional capacity it will be in shortage.
LG Display has said that it is looking at expanding with a G10.5 fab to compete better for large sized TVs, but it has also said that it may expand by boosting its G8.5 capacity. Nobody has yet made G10.5 OLEDs and that is likely to be technically challenging.
If Samsung were to buy panels from LG, the shortage would be brought forward by a year.
What We Think
Of course, the long investment cycles in the display business mean that forecasting supply is not so tricky if you have good access to the investment information and the equipment suppliers. However, forecasting demand is much more difficult. (BR)
