Gartner Says 2016 Marked Fifth Consecutive Year of Worldwide PC Shipment Decline

Worldwide PC shipments totaled 72.6 million units in the fourth quarter of 2016, a 3.7 percent decline from the fourth quarter of 2015, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc. For the year, 2016 PC shipments totaled 269.7 million units, a 6.2 percent decline from 2015. PC shipments have declined annually since 2012.

“Stagnation in the PC market continued into the fourth quarter of 2016 as holiday sales were generally weak due to the fundamental change in PC buying behavior,” said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner. “The broad PC market has been static as technology improvements have not been sufficient to drive real market growth. There have been innovative form factors like 2-in-1s and thin and light notebooks, as well as technology improvements, such as longer battery life. This end of the market has grown fast, led by engaged PC users who put high priority on PCs. However, the market driven by PC enthusiasts is not big enough to drive overall market growth.”

“There is the other side of the PC market, where PCs are infrequently used. Consumers in this segment have high dependency on smartphones, so they stretch PC life cycles longer. This side of the market is much bigger than the PC enthusiast segment; thus, steep declines in the infrequent PC user market offset the fast growth of the PC enthusiast market.”

Ms. Kitagawa said that although the overall PC market will see stagnation, there are growth opportunities within the market, such as the engaged PC user market, the business market and gaming. However, these growth areas will not prevent the overall decline of the PC market, at least in the next year.

Four of the top six vendors experienced an increase in worldwide PC shipments in the fourth quarter of 2016 (see Table 1). The top three vendors all increased their global market share in the fourth quarter. Lenovo maintained the No. 1 position, as the company experienced shipment increases in North America and EMEA, while Asia/Pacific and Japan continued to be challenging markets.

Table 1
Preliminary Worldwide PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 4Q16 (Thousands of Units)

Company	4Q16 Shipments	4Q16 Market Share (%)	4Q15 Shipments	4Q15 Market Share (%)	4Q16-4Q15 Growth (%)
Lenovo	15,781	21.7	15,535	20.6	1.6
HP Inc.	14,808	20.4	14,204	18.8	4.3
Dell	10,723	14.8	10,175	13.5	5.4
Asus	5,452	7.5	5,960	7.9	-8.5
Apple	5,440	7.5	5,312	7.0	2.4
Acer Group	4,999	6.9	5,228	6.9	-4.4
Others	15,408	21.2	18,970	25.2	-18.8
Total	72,611	100.0	75,384	100.0	-3.7

Notes: Data includes desk-based PCs, notebook PCs and ultramobile premiums (such as Microsoft Surface), but not Chromebooks or iPads. All data is estimated based on a preliminary study. Final estimates will be subject to change. The statistics are based on shipments selling into channels.

Source: Gartner (January 2017)

HP remained in the second position, and it has recorded three consecutive quarters of shipment growth. HP secured the top position in PC shipments in the U.S. and EMEA, growing faster than the regional averages.

Dell also registered three consecutive quarters of shipment growth in 4Q16. Dell continued to place PCs as a strategic business segment in commercial and consumer markets during 2016. Asus suffered the steepest decline among the top six vendors in the fourth quarter of 2016. Asus has been shifting its PC strategy more toward the high-end market, which will allow it to maintain better profit margins. Gartner analysts said the falling shipment volume could be the cause of this strategy shift.

In the U.S., PC shipments totaled 16.5 million units in the fourth quarter of 2016, a 1.3 percent decline from the fourth quarter of 2015 (see Table 2). Five of the top six vendors in the U.S. PC market experienced a shipment increase in the fourth quarter of 2016. However, this was offset by a 20.9 percent decline in the Others category, and a 48.3 percent decline in shipments by Asus.

“Similar to low-key back to school sales in 3Q16, big sales events, such as Black Friday, Cyber Monday and holiday sales are no longer effective marketing opportunities for PCs since PC purchases are generally driven by a ‘need,’ rather than ‘want,’ motivation,” Ms. Kitagawa said. “PCs are not a preferred gift item any longer, as consumers gravitate toward other consumer electronics, such as virtual personal assistant (VPA) speakers, virtual reality (VR) head-mounted devices, and wearables. Vendors and channels did not have high expectations for the holiday PC sales, so the marketing campaigns remained relatively quiet.”

Table 2
Preliminary U.S. PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 4Q16 (Thousands of Units)

Company	4Q16 Shipments	4Q16 Market Share (%)	4Q15 Shipments	4Q15 Market Share (%)	4Q16-4Q15 Growth (%)
HP Inc.	4,945	29.9	4,577	27.3	8.0
Dell	4,157	25.2	4,081	24.4	1.9
Lenovo	2,282	13.8	2,105	12.6	8.4
Apple	2,111	12.8	1,984	11.8	6.4
Acer Group	662	4.0	596	3.6	11.2
Asus	621	3.8	1,201	7.2	-48.3
Others	1,740	10.5	2,199	13.1	-20.9
Total	16,518	100.0	16,743	100.0	-1.3

Notes: Data includes desk-based PCs, notebook PCs and ultramobile premiums (such as Microsoft Surface), but not Chromebooks or iPads. All data is estimated based on a preliminary study. Final estimates will be subject to change. The statistics are based on shipments selling into channels.

Source: Gartner (January 2017)

PC shipments in EMEA surpassed 21.9 million units in the fourth quarter of 2016, a 3.4 percent decline year over year. PC shipments to the consumer market were driven by good Black Friday sales in Western European countries, such as the U.K. and France, especially on traditional notebooks, ultramobile clamshells, the hybrid form factor and gaming PCs. Gartner’s early estimates also show PC shipment growth in the business segment, led by Windows 10 deployments during the fourth quarter.

The Asia/Pacific PC market totaled 24.8 million units in the fourth quarter of 2016, a 3.9 percent decline from the fourth quarter of 2015. The PC market was affected by two major events. First, the demonetization of the Indian currency in India led to weaker-than-expected consumer PC demand. Second, the success of China’s 11.11 (Singles Day on 11 November) online shopping event gave a boost to consumer notebook sales.

For the year, worldwide PC shipments totaled 269.7 million units in 2016 (see Table 3). 2016 shipment totals were at the same levels as shipments in 2007. Market consolidation escalated in 2016 as the top three vendors (Lenovo, HP and Dell) accounted for 54.7 percent of worldwide PC shipments in 2016, up from 51.5 percent in 2015.

Table 3
Preliminary Worldwide PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 2016 (Thousands of Units)

Company	2016 Shipments	2016 Market Share (%)	2015 Shipments	2015 Market Share (%)	2016-2015 Growth (%)
Lenovo	55,888	20.7	57,274	19.9	-2.4
HP Inc.	52,458	19.4	52,548	18.3	-0.2
Dell	39,378	14.6	38,371	13.3	2.6
Asus	20,613	7.6	21,157	7.4	-2.6
Apple	18,612	6.9	20,377	7.1	-8.7
Acer Group	18,276	6.8	20,291	7.1	-9.9
Others	64,492	23.9	77,657	27.0	-17.0
Total	269,717	100.0	287,675	100.0	-6.2

Notes: Data includes desk-based PCs, notebook PCs and ultramobile premiums (such as Microsoft Surface), but not Chromebooks or iPads. All data is estimated based on a preliminary study. Final estimates will be subject to change. The statistics are based on shipments selling into channels.

Source: Gartner (January 2017)

These results are preliminary. Final statistics will be available soon to clients of Gartner’s PC Quarterly Statistics Worldwide by Region program. This program offers a comprehensive and timely picture of the worldwide PC market, allowing product planning, distribution, marketing and sales organizations to keep abreast of key issues and their future implications around the globe.