What They Say
TrendForce, the Taiwanese analyst firm, said that because of Chinese lockdowns, April shipments of notebooks were only 17.5 million, down 21.5% YoY. The firm is forecasting Q2 sales of 55.1 million down 21.2% QoQ and 19% YoY.
As well as supply chain issues in China, demand remains weak because of macroeconomic and geo-political headwinds. Shipments in Q1 2022 by brands were 55.6 million, down 4.5% YoY.
As a result of these factors, panel inventory remains high, an effect that was made worse by larger orders from brands to get supply when it was tighter and TrendForce estimates that notebook makers’ inventory of panels was around 8-12 weeks at the end of April, up from a typical range of 6-8 weeks. That inventory, plus a significant inventory of finished sets stuck in logistics hold-ups means that the firm does not expect growth in panel demand for some time. It could be Q4 or later before the situation is resolved.
As a result, TrendForce forecasts that notebook panel shipments in 2022 will be revised downward to 240 million units, a YoY decline of 14.9%, with further potential for downward adjustment. Market trends will depend on changes in the overall environment.
What We Think
I’ve been trying to ‘get caught up’ after Display Week. When I do, I plan to have a hard look at the prospects for IT displays. I am concerned that OLED makers are planning to invest to supply IT applications when there is already, arguably, too much capacity. (BR)
