What They Say
DSCC published some interesting forecasts on the OLED market. The firm expects growth in all the key OLED applications at 8% overall, with IT applications seeing double digit revenue growth, smartphones with 6% CAGR and TVs seeing 9% CAGR. The overall growth is expected to slow by 2026 as smartphone OLED revenues flatten.
TV revenues are expected to grow in 2022, but then be flat to 2024, before growing again in 2025. It expects QD-OLED TV panels to account for a ~8% unit share and ~12% revenue share over the forecast period. Monitors based on QD-OLED should account for a ~19% unit share and ~12% revenue share of the OLED monitor category. The overall OLED market should reach 15.1 million panels and $6.4 billion in revenue in 2026.
What We Think
If you combine the notebook ($2.4 billion), monitor ($1.3 billion) and tablet ($2.0 billion) forecasts for 2026, you get to around 90% of the value of the TV OLED market. That highlights the importance of IT to the next phase of OLED industry development. One of the forecast assumptions is that Apple will not start selling an OLED tablet until 2024 and if that changes, it will impact the notebook and monitor forecasts. The forecasts will be very much based on the capacity that will be available for manufacture. In the case of TV OLEDs, that’s a critical constraint to the forecast.
There are individual charts for monitors, notebooks, tablets, smartphones and TV revenues on the website. (BR)
