What They Say
In its latest Capex report, DSCC highlighted that there are now 11 different 15K G8.5/G8.6 IT OLED lines under development and spending for fabs for IT applications will lead OLED spending in 2024 and 2025 as both BOE and Visionox have switched their next smartphone fabs to these cost optimized IT RGB OLED fabs. The firms hope that they can narrow the price gap between LCD and OLEDs for notebooks and other applications. Part of that squeezing of cost is because of a planned switch from LTPS to oxide-based rigid backplanes and other technology changes in production.
The article looks at the advantages of oxides over LTPS and LTPO. The firm said that Sharp is targeting mobility of 40-80 cm²/Vs through its IGZO8 project. It also highlights that if ion implant tools can be scaled to support oxide, then LTPS and LTPO can also scale to G8.5 as Coherent and JSW have already demonstrated ELA solutions at G8.5 and even G10.5, although cost is likely to make LTPS less acceptable for volume production.
The article looks at the pros and cons of moving to vertical FMM manufacturing, rather than horizontal for IT applications.
The notebook market is currently just 2% OLED at around 6 million units, so there is a chance to boost that share by overcoming technology challenges, listed in the blog. Based on an assumption that ten of the planned lines come into production at 80% yields, the industry could produce 91 million 16.2″ panels by 2026, but that would mean a third of the notebook market. DSCC sees that level of penetration as being unlikely but notes that the capacity could be available.
Monitor panels for OLEDs were less than 100K in 2021, with a market for 180 million panels, so there are opportunities based on better performance, especially for gaming. Add-on ‘mirror displays’ may also boost the market.
A final comment on these fabs is that by targeting multiple applications from a single G8.5 fab, they will have much less seasonality than current G6 OLED fabs which are very dependent on Apple’s seasonality. Thus, they will have similar utilization patterns as existing G8.5/G8.6 LCD fabs which would be very positive for OLED suppliers.
What We Think
As it happens, Ian Hendy will be looking at the potential for oxides in today’s Display Daily, which will be published shortly. (Could High Performance Oxide Become the #2 FPD Backplane in Five Years?) It is exciting to see a serious possibility of more OLEDs in IT. Once you see one, you will want one. (BR)
