What They Say
DSCC said that its latest capacity forecast for the LCD industry as better performance from miniLED backlights improves revenues for makers and allows more money for further investment. The CAGR of growth from 2020-25 is 4.3% and capacity increase has risen from 1% CAGR to 3% CAGR despite 13% of 2020 capacity being from Korea and this is expected to be shut down, still. Samsung should do this by the end of 2021 and LG Display to have shut all but two plants by the end of 2022.
The changes could mean another price increase in LCDs in late 2022 or 2023.
Looking at overall display capacity, by 2025, China will have more than a 50% share in each major technology and application by 2025, with BOE and CSOT sharing 40% of the capacity of the industry. OLED capacity will still only be 13% of total industry capacity (by area) but capacity will grow at 19% CAGR.
What We Think
Area and value are not the same things and we have already had feedback from DSCC that their next published OLED value report will be more bullish than the recent report (UBI Sets Out Long Term OLED Development). I have to admit that the data presented at that time seemed conservative. (BR)
