What They Say
DSCC published a blog article that highlighted its forecast for what it defines as Advanced TV and expects 19% CAGR to 2026 with $35.4 billion at the end of the period and to 38.6 million units. In 2022, the value will be $29.4 billion and units will increase by 26% to 24.7 million. Interestingly, the firm said that it had reduced its forecast for 8K because of slow sales and said that it no longer expects Samsung to develop 8K QD-OLEDs, although it does now expect 49″ and 77″ units from 2023.
Some highlights from the substantial blog post:
- The best OLED growth will be in sub-55″ (+61%) and >65″ sets with 42″ reaching 200K this year, after launching in Q2. Shipments of 77”+ OLED TVs are expected to increase by 30% Y/Y with shipments of 83” TVs increasing by 123% Y/Y.
- Overall OLED TV growth will be 28% in units to 8.9 million with revenues up 9% annually.
- QD-OLED will be limited to 1.6 million units in 2026 because of limited supply from SDC
- MicroLED will growth to more than 30K units by 2026, but that is still a niche at less than 0.1% of the Advanced TV market (but 3% of revenues).
- LCD Advanced TV will decline to a 54% revenue share by 2026.
- Western Europe and North America will drive the market at over 60% share between them over the forecast. (Chart in the blog)
- MiniLED is “the champion for the LCD camp” and will have an advantage over OLED in the largest sizes, because of G10.5 fabs. It will also enable 8K and from this year miniLED will be a majority of 8K sets. (chart of forecast by size for miniLED in the blog)
What We Think
As usual, there is a lot more in the blog itself and it’s worth a look if you are in this market. As I said recently, defining the market in the right way means that you can keep putting out positive growth forecasts! (BR)
