What They Say
DSCC published a blog post showing its forecast for the Advanced TV (QD, miniLED, 8K and OLEDs) that sees the market rising by a CAGR of 19.% to 2026, reaching 37.4 million units and $35.6 billion. The forecast no longer includes dual panel LCD or rollable OLED sets.
OLED TV units (including QD-OLED) are expected to increase by 14% to 7.8M with revenues increasing 7% Y/Y. Most growth will be in the smallest (<50”) and largest (77”+) sizes. Shipments of OLED TVs <50” are expected to increase by 36% Y/Y with shipments of 42” OLED TVs starting in Q2 2022. Shipments of 77”+ OLED TVs are expected to increase by 19% Y/Y with shipments of 83” TVs increasing by 110% Y/Y.
Advanced LCD TV units are expected to increase by 22% Y/Y to 15.6M units with revenues increasing 12% Y/Y. Growth will be concentrated in 75” and larger sizes. Shipments of 75” Advanced LCD TVs are expected to increase by 39% Y/Y while shipments of even larger Advanced LCD TVs are expected to increase by 36% Y/Y to more than 800K units.
Although prices will be under pressure, DSCC expects OLED revenues to rise to $15 billion in 2026 with LCDs dropping to 54% share. MicroLED will emerge as the super-premium TV to capture $1.5 billion or 4% of Advanced TV revenues with only 0.1% of units.
Western Europe and North America will continue to be the largest regions for Advanced TV. These two regions represented a combined 63% and 62% of Advanced TV units and revenue, respectively, in 2021, and we expect the combined share to remain nearly the same through 2026. (there’s a chart on the blog)
There’s a chart on the blog of the firm’s QD-OLED forecast. Samsung is said to be changing to a MMG process and will make 2-up 77” TV panels and 2-up 49” (for monitors) on each Gen 8.5 substrate in 2023.
There is also a forecast for miniLED TV that shows that the market will be 3X bigger in 2026 than this year.
What We Think
There are clearly some assumptions about OLED TV panel capacity growth in the report and that’s a topic Barry is covering in his DD, to be published later today (TCL Chairman Weighs Decision on Gen 8.5 IJP OLED Fab) (BR)
