What They Say
We published a press release from Sigmaintell on the site today. To summarise the long release:
- Whereas Q1 and Q2 of the year are usually less than 50% of the total for the year, for TV panel shipments, this year they will be more than 50% with only a small recovery from Q2 in Q3 and Q4 rhtar than the normal significant growth.
- The panel market should hit 260 million for the year
- Average sizes are forecast to be down from 48.5″ to 47.7″ for the year – an unusual change, although Q4 should get back to 49.3″.
- OLED TV panels should hit 8.9 million this year and 10.6 million in 2023, penetration of 3.8% and 4.9% respectively. Sigmaintell believes that LGD could get into lower volumes and higher costs
- The release looks at panel makers strategies. BOE and CSOT have cut utilisation and HKC has slowed its ramp up. AUO and Innolux will continue to reduce their exposure to the TV business. Sigmaintell believes that TV panel supply will further decline by 7.3% in Q3 with demand from the top 9 TV panel buyers at less than 35 million panels.
- Prices will continue to decline and the company cannot give a date for this to end, but firms have to continue to emphasise cost reductions and capacity restriction.
What We Think
I’m trying to remember if the average size of LCD TVs shipped has ever declined? The seasonal share chart below is an interesting one and shows how the weak demand and high inventory is impacting the traditional cycle. (BR)
