What They Say
DigitalTVResearch forecast that traditional pay TV penetration in the US will slip below 50% of TV households in 2026 – down from 91% in 2010 and down from 60% in 2021. Digital TV Research forecasts 60 million pay TV subscribers by 2027; declining from 105 million in the peak year of 2010.
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said:
- “The US lost 6 million pay TV subscribers each year from 2019 to 2021. Losses will decrease from now on, but the 2027 total will be 12 million lower than 2021.”
The number of households without a pay TV subscription will rocket from 11.34 million in 2010 to 72.86 million in 2027 due mainly to cord-cutting. Pay TV revenues peaked in 2014, at $101 billion. A $48 billion decline is forecast between 2014 and 2027; halving the total to $53 billion.
What We Think
It has taken a long time for cord-cutting to gain momentum, but a move from 91% to less than 50% in 16 years is pretty quick for a highly established and understood business that hasn’t stopped working. Omdia recently reported that the average number of streaming services in US households is now seven, so I doubt that overall spending has dropped much. (BR)
