The tl;dr version: looks like LTPO panels will be standard projected through to the release of iPhone 19 in 2027 with LG shifting its focus away from computing displays and monitor to raise its market share stemming from its relationship with Apple. LG is also putting more emphasis on automotive displays, where it is experiencing strong growth.
OLED smartphone panel shipments declined by 7% YoY in 2022, reaching 587 million units, while revenues were down 1% at $32 billion. Despite this, low-temperature polycrystalline oxide (LTPO) backplanes have seen a steady increase in usage and are projected to continue growing in the coming years.
LTPO panels have been gaining traction due to their ability to deliver higher refresh rates and always-on displays while consuming less power. As more panel suppliers qualify their LTPO capacity for mass production, the technology’s penetration has risen from 10% in 2021 to 23% in 2022. The report predicts that LTPO will continue to grow, achieving a 40% unit share and a 60% device revenue share over the forecast period.
Apple dominated the market in 2022 with seven of the top 10 best-selling smartphone models in units and revenues, led by the iPhone 13, which held an 8% unit share. The iPhone 14 Pro Max was the revenue leader with an 11% share. Notably, Apple introduced LTPO panels in their iPhone 13 Pro and Pro Max models in 2021. By 2025, David Naranjo at DSCC expects that all iPhone 17 models will feature LTPO panels as capacity increases and costs decrease. This widespread adoption of LTPO technology could lead to a significant shift in the smartphone display market, with other major manufacturers likely following Apple’s lead.
Source: David Naranjo, DSCC
LG Display is shifting its focus from TV and monitor displays to smartphone and vehicle displays, having experienced significant growth in its OLED panel supply for the iPhone. LG’s share of iPhone 14 displays has been on the rise for seven consecutive months. This growth can be attributed to the company’s substantial supply of high-end LTPO OLED panels for the premium iPhone 14 Pro Max since October last year. The company’s share of the iPhone business will continue to grow with the upcoming iPhone 15 series, scheduled for release in the second half of this year. While LG’s cumulative share is estimated at 18% today, it is expected to increase to 28% for the iPhone 15.
In related information, LG’s shift is also going to see benefits in automotive display sales. Sales are expected to more than double from 1.6 trillion won (US$1.216 billion) in 2022 to 3.5 trillion won (US$2.66 billion) in 2025. Additionally, LG Display’s annual vehicle display order intake in 2022 stood at 4 to 5 trillion won (US$3.04 to US$3.8 billion), which is up about 40 percent from the previous year. Clearly, the company is leveraging real growth opportunities with a great deal of uncertainty about how long the computer and monitor business will remain in decline. Automotive and Apple have given LG a two to three year window of opportunity.
