What Display Daily thinks: Your guess is as good as anyone’s about how the OLED IT market is going to pan out over the next 24 months. It’s an opaque opportunity, or threat, depending on how you parse the information and analysis from different sources. The level of uncertainty arises from the fear of investment; how far should display makers go in preparing for a market rebound in 2024, and is Apple really going to be able to drive that rebound in light of evidence that suggest the presence consumer downturn is very stubborn, and getting more difficult to predict as interest rates continue to go up and the economy looks like it is faltering.
The uncertainty is not isolated to North American markets, or Asian markets. Everyone is feeling the pinch. What did you expect? Consumers are being squeezed from every direction; mortgage payments go up, credit card payments go up, jobs feel insecure, and there are scary wars with long term implications being fought in Europe and the Middle East.
You could argue that the IT market is driven by business demand, not consumers, but it is quite clear that businesses are cutting back on their spending on technology. Sometimes you have to do the wise thing and let the situation play out, not force a direction. In sports it is called letting the game come to you which means that you don’t force a play that will lead to mistakes and leave you vulnerable. That is probably the best strategy if you want to play in the OLED IT market. Let the game play out and let it come to you. Don’t force a run at goal.
OLED for IT
Conflicting analyst reports came out this week that add to the uncertainty around the exact trajectory of growth for OLED in the IT space. Mostly, this is the result of conflicting rumors and predictions about Apple adopting OLED displays for MacBooks and iPads.
DSCC’s CEO, Ross Young, commented that the launch time frame for MacBook Pro with OLED is 2026 or 2027 in webinar with Bloomberg. UBI Research in Korea has noted that OLED iPad shipments should start in 2024, although Bloomberg has said it may not be until 2025.
Some of these pronouncements are also based about the conflicting priorities and investments of companies like Samsung, LG, and BOE in next generation OLED production lines to accommodate the IT market. Everyone, it seems, is holding its breath on Apple. And that seems to be the gating factor for the OLED IT market.
Interestingly enough, you have other reports, like one recently from Canalys, that shows Apple’s global PC shipments fell by 29.1% this year. Anecdotally, or verifiably depending on how you view this kind of data, Amazon’s Prime Day discounts on Apple’s laptops have seen prices lower than they have ever been. Apple is probably the worst discounter in the tech business, never wanting to be seen as needing to discount, or never needing to discount because of built-in demand. That seems to have changed. It doesn’t take much analysis to see that Apple’s sales channels are offering good, if not great, deals on its IT products, iPads included.
There’s also the consideration that Apple’s Taiwanese suppliers – TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry Co, Compal Electronics, and Quanta – have all faced significant slumps in their business for the first nine months of this year, and drops in September despite the launch of the iPhone 15 series.
So, add it all up: yes/no on the dates when OLED shipments to the IT market will see a surge of growth driven on the back of Apple’s adoption of the display technology, a very concerning demand environment for everything from smartphones to laptops, vigorous discounting on a level that has not been seen before, and a general uncertainty about what kind of investments are being made in building capacity for IT OLED displays by major manufacturers.
