What Display Daily thinks: It’s hard to see how the size of the MicroLED market in 2034 can be summed up as $5.2 billion and for it to be then considered as disruptive. If MicroLED lives up to its promise, it becomes the dominant technology in display manufacturing, and therefore, the size of the market should be orders of magnitude greater than $5.2 billion in 11 years time.
The thing about MicroLED technology is that when the inflection point comes – the juncture at which mass production becomes economically viable for mid to large area displays – growth at scale is going to become highly accelerated, like any other semiconductor device or market has experienced in the past. That’s really the disruption opportunity.
The value of MicroLED is in the opportunity it affords for differentiation and value creation in the display industry once it is commoditized, and that should happen well within a 10 year time frame. The differentiation is going to come from the drive circuitry and the software supporting displays. That will mean a tighter integration of display drivers with core computing systems, whether in a headset or smart TV.
In fact, the better opportunity is that MicroLED forces the display industry to move to a fabless model like the processor market. It needs a display startup that mimics a company like Nvidia that, despite having no fabs of its own, took on a company like Intel, and arguably, won the battle. Good for innovation, good for the market, and good for growth.
Decoupling manufacturing from design, and decoupling the core components of displays from the final OEM product are key disruptors that should enable growth in the display industry at levels that compare favorably to other moments of invention, despite the display market being considered mature. In other words, MicroLED should redefine the display industry and force a reset of its reach, a sort of back to square one approach to understanding the significance of the growth opportunity.
The computing industry has come full circle from the days of mainframes to PCs and the notion of islands of automation, back to a client-server model where the server is, essentially, an abstract cloud. The display becomes the client’ focal point, and the client, even if you don’t believe all the hype surrounding AI, becomes every connection to a core computing or automation function.
You can’t have AI without a higher order display. So, LCD panels and digital dashboards are not sufficiently sophisticated enough to handle the man-machine interface in a world where AI and natural language interfaces have become the majority means of accessing data, working with applications, or automation. Windows, icons, mice and pointers become retro. The face of AI has to be more engaging than that. A fabless, MicroLED-focused display industry would be well positioned to deliver the greater demand for displays of the future. What we have today is still mired in traditional thinking about displays as TVs.
Displays should be the fabric of the bright new digital future that is being hyped. Hype it may be, but that doesn’t make it any less inevitable.
MicroLED Displays Poised to Disrupt Display Market
A new report from market research firm IDTechEx predicts that MicroLED displays are poised to disrupt the display market in the coming years.
The first MicroLED commercial product – Sony’s Crystal LED display – targeted high-end applications, with its tiny LED pitch resulting in high costs. However, IDTechEx believes MicroLEDs have potential for wider adoption if cost barriers can be overcome. The report notes that established LED and display supply chains could enable lower costs and new applications.
According to IDTechEx’s market forecast, four key applications will drive microLED adoption: augmented/mixed reality, wearables, automotive displays, and large video displays. The report predicts the MicroLED market will exceed $5.2 billion by 2034, led by demand from AR/MR and large video applications for now.
The report also notes increasing industry collaboration and supply chain clustering by geography as players race to establish a foothold in the burgeoning MicroLED ecosystem. IDTechEx believes globalization will continue shaping the industry as MicroLEDs move from early emergence to further growth and eventual maturation.
