After heady atmosphere of Display Week 2025, where everything seems possible and the future of display technology seems like it is going to blow your mind, it’s time to get real. The television display industry is experiencing its most dramatic transformation in over two decades, as Chinese manufacturers mount an unprecedented challenge to established market leaders while panel makers navigate an increasingly complex global landscape. What emerges from the latest industry data is a picture of an sector in flux, where traditional assumptions about market dynamics, technology preferences, and competitive positioning are being fundamentally rewritten.
For the first time since Samsung established its dominance in the premium TV market, the South Korean giant faces a legitimate threat to its leadership position. The challenge comes not from traditional rivals like LG or Sony, but from Chinese manufacturers who have chosen an entirely different strategic playbook. TCL and Hisense, leveraging China’s manufacturing dominance in LCD panels, are aggressively promoting large-screen MiniLED displays that deliver premium viewing experiences at prices their Korean competitors simply cannot match.
The numbers tell a compelling story of rapid market share redistribution. In the first quarter of 2025, TCL’s unit share in the premium TV market jumped from 13% to 19%, while revenue share increased from 13% to 16% (Counterpoint, June 2, 2025). Hisense performed even more impressively, with unit share rising from 14% to 20% and revenue share growing from 13% to 17% over the same period. Both companies achieved triple-digit percentage increases in shipments, with revenues growing 74% and 87% respectively YoY.
This remarkable growth came directly at Samsung’s expense. The market leader’s unit share of the premium TV segment fell from 39% in Q1 2024 to just 28% in Q1 2025, while revenue share dropped from 38% to 30% (Counterpoint, June 2, 2025). Samsung’s shipments increased a mere 1% YoY compared to its Chinese rivals’ explosive growth, signaling a fundamental shift in competitive dynamics that extends far beyond typical market fluctuations.
Manufacturing Caution Amid Uncertainty
While market share battles rage in retail channels, a different drama is unfolding in manufacturing facilities across Asia. Display panel makers are forecasting a 3-percentage point decline in fab utilization rates for Q2 2025, following a period of stability that began in mid-Q4 2024 (Omdia, May 15, 2025). This planned reduction represents an unusual departure from historical patterns, as panel makers typically increase production in the second quarter to prepare for end-market demands in the latter half of the year.
The decision to cut production reflects manufacturers’ growing caution about future demand. Top Chinese panel makers BOE, TCL CSOT, and HKC Display, which collectively account for 60% of global display manufacturing capacity by area, are projected to lower their monthly average fab utilization by 6-9 percentage points in May (Omdia, May 15, 2025). This conservative approach stems from anticipated cuts in LCD TV panel orders from major TV brands, as Chinese manufacturers scale back orders after building inventory for the 618 mid-year sales promotion, and Korean TV brands reduce procurement once they reach sufficient stock levels.
Alex Kang, Principal Analyst at Omdia, captures the prevailing sentiment: “The uncertainty surrounding end market demand in 2H2025 has led panel makers to adopt a more conservative approach to panel production volume in 2Q25. The impact of the Chinese government’s subsidy program is expected to diminish in the second half of the year, and set makers are unlikely to aggressively pursue year-end promotions in US market due to ongoing tariff issues.”
This manufacturing caution contrasts sharply with recent performance. Global TV shipments grew 2.4% YoY in Q1 2025, reaching 47.5 million units, despite ongoing uncertainty around potential US tariff implementations (Omdia, May 22, 2025). The growth was particularly notable given the challenging environment, with stable demand from Western Europe and North America combining with government incentives in China to offset softer conditions in Japan.
The Technology War: MiniLED vs. OLED
Perhaps the most fascinating aspect of the current industry transformation is the technology battle reshaping the premium TV segment. While Samsung has focused its resources on OLED technology and achieved remarkable success, increasing its OLED TV unit share from 12% in Q1 2023 to 31% in Q1 2025 (Counterpoint, June 2, 2025), Chinese manufacturers have chosen a different path entirely.
Rather than compete directly with Samsung’s OLED strength, TCL and Hisense have leveraged China’s dominance in LCD panel production to aggressively promote large-screen MiniLED LCD models. This strategy exploits a fundamental consumer choice: given similar price points, buyers can opt for a smaller OLED TV or a larger MiniLED display. Increasingly, consumers are choosing size over the technical advantages of OLED technology.
The market response has been dramatic. MiniLED LCD TV shipments increased 159% YoY in Q1 2025, while OLED TV shipments grew only 10% (Counterpoint, June 2, 2025). Revenue growth tells a similar story, with MiniLED revenues increasing 111% compared to OLED’s 14% growth. This shift has fundamentally altered the competitive landscape in the super-premium market, where MiniLED surpassed OLED in Q2 2024 and has continued expanding its share in each subsequent quarter.
The implications extend beyond simple technology preferences. Samsung, despite its OLED market share gains, has seen its position in MiniLED rankings slide precipitously. After dominating the MiniLED category in 2021-2022 and maintaining leadership through 2023, Samsung was passed by TCL, then Hisense, and finally Xiaomi in 2024. By Q1 2025, Samsung held only the fourth position in units and third position in revenues in the MiniLED segment it once dominated.
Regional Dynamics and Trade Implications
The global nature of the TV display industry means that regional developments and trade policies continue to influence market dynamics significantly. China’s “Swap Old for New” stimulus program contributed to 3.3% YoY growth in Q1 2025 (Omdia, May 22, 2025), but this initiative is set to expire later in the year and effectively pulls forward future demand rather than creating sustainable growth.
Trade policy uncertainties add another layer of complexity. The temporary suspension of US import tariffs on Mexican goods in March 2025 created a surge in LCD TV panel orders from TV makers with factories in Mexico, further boosting Q1 2025 fab utilization rates (Omdia, May 22, 2025). However, the ongoing uncertainty about tariff implementations continues to influence strategic decisions across the industry.
Matthew Rubin, Principal Analyst for TV Set Research at Omdia, notes that “the North American market was subdued in the first quarter of 2025, but remained in positive territory, with 0.6% year-on-year growth. This aligns with historical patterns, where US TV demand tends to remain resilient during economic shocks, as TVs are considered as essential home entertainment, even when other discretionary spending declines.”
Several factors help mitigate potential negative impacts on the US market, including healthy inventory levels, assembly operations in Mexico that benefit from 0% TV import tariffs, and the US government’s apparently more moderate stance on tariffs, with most global tariffs now in the 10-15% range, making assembly in countries like Vietnam viable again.
Price Stability in an Unstable World
One of the most remarkable aspects of the current TV display market is the unprecedented price stability that began in mid-2023. For most of the flat panel display industry’s history, LCD TV panel prices were characterized by wild swings as the industry cycled between oversupply and shortage. That pattern stopped in 2023, replaced by much gentler fluctuations that have persisted through 2025.
According to Counterpoint Research, LCD TV panel prices have remained within a relatively tight range for over two years, with their price index staying between 41.8 and 45.6 for 22 months through May 2025. Q1 2025 prices were an average of 2.8% higher than Q4 2024 prices, with the average price increase across all screen sizes expected to be just 0.3% in Q2.
This stability reflects a fundamental shift in industry dynamics. Panel makers are prioritizing price protection over volume growth, adopting made-to-order strategies while carefully managing inventory levels. Current pricing levels allow Chinese panel makers, with cost advantages from government subsidies, to achieve small profits while Taiwanese panel makers operate near breakeven. While this doesn’t allow for significant financial returns on investments, it represents a substantial improvement over the severe losses experienced during market gluts in previous years.
Global Implications and Emerging Markets
The transformation of the TV display industry has implications that extend far beyond the major markets of North America, Europe, and East Asia. India represents perhaps the most significant emerging opportunity, with flat panel display (FPD) revenue expected to reach $11.7 billion in 2025, representing about 9% of global FPD revenue (Counterpoint, June 9, 2025). Currently, 100% of the FPDs consumed in India are imported, presenting substantial opportunities for localization as the government prepares to announce India Semiconductor Mission 2.0.
The automotive segment also emerges as a critical growth driver for the future. While mobile phones and TVs account for nearly 80% of overall FPD revenue currently, the automotive monitor segment shows the fastest revenue growth because it is expanding both in terms of units and screen size while witnessing increasing functionality (Counterpoint, June 9, 2025).
The Road Ahead
As the television display industry navigates through the second quarter of 2025, several key themes emerge that will likely define its trajectory in the coming years. The challenge to Samsung’s long-held market leadership represents more than a typical competitive cycle; it reflects fundamental changes in manufacturing economics, consumer preferences, and technology trajectories that favor companies with access to cost-effective LCD production and the willingness to prioritize screen size over premium display technologies.
The industry’s newfound price stability, while beneficial for manufacturers’ financial health, also creates new competitive dynamics where success depends increasingly on operational efficiency, technology innovation, and market positioning rather than the ability to survive extreme price volatility. Chinese manufacturers have proven particularly adept at navigating this environment, leveraging their manufacturing scale and cost advantages to challenge established players across multiple market segments simultaneously.
Looking forward, the industry faces several critical uncertainties. The expiration of China’s government stimulus program later in 2025 will test whether recent demand growth can be sustained without artificial support. Trade policy developments, especially US-China relations and tariff implementations, will continue influencing global supply chain decisions and market access strategies.
Perhaps most significantly, the ongoing technology battle between MiniLED and OLED will determine not just which companies succeed in the premium TV segment, but how consumer preferences evolve regarding the fundamental trade-offs between screen size, picture quality, and price. The early indication that consumers increasingly favor larger MiniLED displays over smaller OLED units suggests that traditional assumptions about premium market dynamics may need substantial revision.
The television display industry’s current transformation represents more than a cyclical market shift; it signals the emergence of new competitive paradigms that will likely define the sector for years to come. As Chinese manufacturers continue leveraging their advantages while established players adapt their strategies, the only certainty is that the industry landscape will look markedly different by the time current uncertainties resolve.
For the in-depth numbers and analysis, we rely on Omdia’s Display Production & Inventory Tracker and TV Sets Market Tracker, and Counterpoint Research’s Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report and Flat Panel Display Tracker reports.
