After predicting a 2.8% recovery in 2023, IDC is now reducing its forecast to project a 1.1% decline in 2023 shipments to 1.19 billion units.
5G continues to grow and will account for 62% of smartphones shipped worldwide in 2023, rising to 83% by 2027. IDC believes that market momentum will continue to build around foldable phones as the segment is expected to grow to nearly 22 million units this year—a 50% increase while the overall market contracts. This segment will continue to grow as costs decrease and more OEMs launch this form factor, as was seen this week with multiple Android foldable launches at Mobile World Congress. Finally, the smartphone average selling price (ASP) that saw rapid growth over the last few years (from $334 in 2019 to $415 in 2022) will begin to decline starting in 2023 and is expected to reach $376 by end of the forecast period.
Foldables Crease, Don’t They?
The only reason to be upbeat on foldables is the likelihood that the novelty factor gives them more visibility and, it may assuage the concerns of price-conscious buyers struggling to justify an upgrade if they feel like they have something that they never had before. But, we really don’t have enough data on the longevity of foldables and are possibly downplaying the impact of their higher costs, the bulkiness of devices, and the non-standard ways in which every phone will bend (big old gaps) or, crease (like 70s jeans). We just know that analysts and market forecasters are getting it wrong on consumer recovery in 2023 before the first quarter is even done. Just take out 2019–2021 data as an asterisk, maybe even 2022, and then you have a realistic starting point for where the numbers should be. That pandemic hump just managed to mess with everyone’s minds and create a fog of zealous expectations.
