Global satellite TV revenues will pass cable this year, says Digital TV Research. Satellite revenues represented about 44% of the total in 2014, and are forecast to grow to 46% by 2020. Cable (analogue and digital), however, will fall from 46% in 2015 to 40% in 2020. IPTV will climb faster than any other platform, from a 10% share to 13%.
DTVR estimates that satellite revenues will reach $94.8 billion in 2020. The USA will remain the satellite leader and Brazil – having overtaken the UK in 2013 – will maintain its second-place position ($6.8 billion). India’s revenues will rise the most ($2.5 billion, climbing from 10th to 5th place). The USA, Canada and France will all see declines, however: by $421 million, $805 million and $232 million, respectively.
Cable is forecast to fall from $93.8 billion in 2012 – its peak – to $81.9 billion in 2020. Operators will gain extra revenues by converting subscribers to bundles.
Analogue cable revenues will ‘plummet’ to $1.5 billion by 2020 – from $15.9 billion in 2014. Digital will climb 5.6%, though, from $76.1 billion to $80.3 billion. Revenues in the USA will fall $8.9 billion, to $34.1 billion. China, in second, will raise its revenues by $2.1 billion (to $8.9 billion) and Japan by $2 billion (to $5.1 billion). More than 20 countries will see digital cable revenues fall between 2014 and 2020.
IPTV is a highlight for the industry, with revenues expected to reach $27.9 billion by 2020 – three times the 2010 figure. The USA’s growth will be fastest (up $1.3 billion to $9.5 billion), followed by Canada ($2.3 billion) and China (up $1.1 billion to $2.1 billion) – just ahead of Japan.
Pay-TV revenues will more than double in 33 countries over the forecast period, with most percentage growth coming from Africa. Global pay-TV revenues will only rise 2.6%, however, to $207 billion.
On a regional basis, total TV revenues in North America will decrease 11.7% ($12 billion), while Western Europe will be flat at $32 billion. APAC, though, will rise 30% (almost $10 billion) to $42 billon. The region will overtake Western Europe this year and the whole of Europe by 2019. Eastern Europe will grow $1 billion (17%) and Latin America $2.4 billion (13%).
MENA is also set for growth, with revenues forecast to rise 32% ($1.4 billion). The real winner is Sub-Saharan Africa, which will grow $2.7 billion (76%), passing MENA in 2018.
Analyst Comment
I think I mentioned last week that an STB supplier at TV Connect told me that by around 2018, his big customers are looking to have as much as 1 Gbps of bandwidth available. That will enable a lot of downloaded IPTV (BR).
