TrendForce anticipates that while short-term costs and yield challenges will delay the large-scale commercialization of OLED notebooks, ongoing investments in high-generation production lines and emerging technologies will, over time, improve efficiencies and lower costs.
OLED notebook displays, currently occupying a niche segment in the market, are poised for significant growth. According to TrendForce, their penetration rate is projected to rise from 3% in 2024 to over 5% by 2027. Early momentum will come from increased adoption by Chinese brands, yet the true tipping point will occur when Apple introduces OLED MacBooks, sending a strong signal for the entire industry to follow suit.
As this demand builds, panel makers are ramping up investments in high-generation (G8.6 and beyond) production lines. These advanced lines can handle larger substrates, resulting in better cutting efficiency, expanded scale, and ultimately lower costs once yields improve.
However, integrating tandem (dual-layer) OLED structures to boost brightness and panel lifespan adds complexity and expense. Additionally, transitioning to new production technologies presents substantial yield challenges that may delay commercial viability by a year and a half to two years.
Several key players are already taking action. Samsung Display and BOE are leading the charge, with Samsung Display aiming to roll out market-ready panels from its G8.6 line in late 2026. Visionox expects mass production using its ViP technology by 2028, and JDI, together with Innolux and CarUX, is focusing on large integrated automotive displays. At the same time, LG Display is exercising caution, holding back on major investments in high-generation lines due to capital constraints.
Cost considerations play a crucial role in these developments. While adopting LTPO backplanes enhances performance, it also inflates production costs due to the more intricate processes and higher-priced equipment required. Historically, the reliance on costly light-emitting materials and the dominance of large international suppliers have kept prices elevated. Over time, the expiration of key patents and a broader range of material suppliers, including Chinese vendors, may alleviate some of these cost pressures.
In the long run, industry players expect improved yields, better bargaining power with suppliers, and economies of scale to drive down expenses. Although achieving cost parity with established G6 production lines may take up to two years for newly built G8.6 lines, once they reach maturity, these advanced production lines could surpass existing efficiency levels and propel wider adoption of OLED technology across the IT sector.
