The gist of it: Will panel price rises last? Toss a coin. IT products are in recession and recovery looks to be some way off, but consumer sentiment seems to be strong. The balance has resulted in positive GDP, at least here in the US . But, interest rates are going to go up, while unemployment is low and prices are high. You can glass-half-full-it or glass-half-empty-it, and be right both times. That sounds a lot like continuing uncertainty. Glad I could clear that up in no way at all.
Panel purchases are increasing as excess inventories are flushed out, according to Bob O’Brien at DSCC, and fab utilization has increased from 65% in Q3’22 to an expected 79% in Q2’23. The average price is expected to increase by 12% QoQ in Q2, with 65″ panels seeing the biggest increases. Prices are expected to stabilize in Q3’23.
Prices for all sizes of TV panels are increasing, with 65″ panels experiencing an 11% MoM increase in April and a 5% increase in May. Other panel sizes saw price increases of 2%-8% in April and 2%-5% in May. June’s average price increase is expected to slow down to 2.1% MoM. Higher utilization in Q2’23 will allow TV makers and retailers to re-stock, which will remove upward pressure on panel prices.
The LCD TV panel price index is expected to cross into positive territory in June 2023 for the first time since September 2021. The index is expected to stabilize at 38.4, a 26% increase over the all-time lows in September 2022. However, the industry’s capacity still far outstrips demand, and another price drop is possible if the balance of supply and demand shifts.
