The second quarter of 2023 saw the first QoQ increase in laptop panel shipments but it is not enough to stop a post-pandemic slide and indicates a possible lack of recovery in the second half of 2023.
| Quarter | Laptop Panel Shipments (million pieces) | QoQ Growth |
| 2Q23 | 46.3 | 19.6% |
| 1Q23 | 38.7 | -10.40% |
| 4Q22 | 42.9 | -7.20% |
| 3Q22 | 46.8 | -13.40% |
| 2Q22 | 53.9 | -17.70% |
| 1Q22 | 71.1 | -7.20% |
I always find laptop data to be a better indicator of actual demand for PCs because desktops are heavily weighted in favor of business users, and people tend to have much shorter lifecycles for their laptops than desktops. Smartphone sales can easily be influenced by subsidized handset sales through operators. Computer sales are pretty much a go-it-alone thing, and with the cost of credit being so high right now, consumers are going to really have to want a laptop to purchase one.
As far as this data is concerned, all indications are that we are seeing an increase in inventories because they had been depleted in the last two quarters, and that there is some cautious optimism for a second-half upturn in sales. However, it doesn’t look like that optimism is going to translate into higher inventories and consumer excitement. No one wants to be caught short on supplies and no one wants to commit to something that may well not happen even though they want to believe it will happen.
Apple is supposed to be refreshing the MacBook Air line with new M3 processors this year, and that will, no doubt, create some pent-up demand. Not to mention the fact that MacBook Air users seem to be the most eager upgraders in the laptop market. But, Apple’s good fortune is not going to be enough to lift all.
| Product | Rumored date | Features |
| 13-inch MacBook Air | June 2022 | May feature M3 chip |
| AR/VR headset | June 2023 | Combines augmented and virtual reality |
| 27-inch external display | 2023 | Successor to the high-end Pro Display XDR, and another possible follow-up |
| iPhone 15/15 Pro | September 2023 | First iPhone with USB-C, potential design changes, 6.1-inch and 6.7-inch sizes, 6.1-inch and 6.7-inch Pro models with A17 chip, Pro models may feature periscope lens technology |
| Apple Watch Series 9 | September 2023 | |
| M3 MacBook Air | June 2022 | Equipped with M3 chip |
| M3 iMac | 2nd half of 2022 | Equipped with M3 chip |
| 24-inch iMac | Late 2022 | May feature M2 or M3 chip |
| iPad mini 7 | Late 2023/2024 | |
| 11.1- and 13-inch iPad Pro | 2024 | OLED displays, M3 chip |
| Foldable iPhone | 2023 | 7.5–8 inch display |
| Apple Car | 2023-2025 | Full autonomous vehicle |
The real concern is that if third quarter estimates that start rolling in around June show a drop of any significance from the second quarter, we could be looking at a panicked and very uncomfortable group of manufacturers in the display industry. These laptop figures don’t go far enough to create that feeling quite yet, but they are on the precipice.
In this day and age, we can probably all agree that there are smartphones, tablets, laptops, and desktops. Phablets and integrated all-in-one PCs should be consigned to the curiosity bin, and the notebook is a Ryan Gosling movie with no computers in it, whatsoever. For reference, the data above is referred to as notebook panel shipments by the folks at TrendForce.
