What Display Daily thinks: Whatever the status of the market for foldables today, the category has to reach at least 15% of the total smartphone market within 5 years, preferably 20%. The projections here would barely crack 5% in five years.
Whether the issues are technical – foldables are expensive to make, support, and implement – or not, the foldable market is the best opportunity for a post-iPhone smartphone era, which could significantly change the smartphone panel opportunities for all vendors. If Samsung has the IP, it should be licensing it to all suppliers and rapidly bringing down the prices for foldables. Not sure if that is even an issue.
For Samsung, with its own smartphone brand, the value of the phone is greater than its gains from control of the market for foldable smartphone panels.
But, 5% of the total market in five years? That’s not going to do anyone any good, especially Samsung.
DSCC’s Projections for Foldable Smartphone and Panel Shipments
DSCC reports that the number of different foldable phones being shipped in 2023 has almost doubled compared to the previous year. In 2022, there were 19 distinct models, but in 2023, that number is expected to rise to 36. This surge is attributed to the entrance of new brands into the foldable market and the launch of additional products by brands already in the market.
The research group has reduced its forecast for foldable panel shipments in 2023 by 21%, bringing the total to 20.1 million. This is still a 33% YoY growth. Similarly, the forecast for foldable phone shipments has been revised down by 15% to 16.4 million, which equates to a 28% growth YoY. The reason for this downward revision is attributed to delays in some product launches and lower-than-expected sales volumes, particularly in a sluggish smartphone market.
