The tl;dr version: QD-OLED projections are down about 15% from predictions made in early 2023. In the same vein, CAGR is projected down from 11% to 7%. The overall growth of revenues by 2027 is down about 12% but there are bright spots for Asian market growth. Seems like macroeconomic factors in Europe and North America are weighing down the market. I’d say outlook uncertain is the default stance to take market recovery until further notice.
According to DSCC, although the LCD TV market share within the Advanced TV segment is expected to decline in the face of competition from newer technologies like OLED, MiniLED, and MicroLED, it will still maintain a majority share, with over 50% of the unit share in the Advanced TV market. The ongoing development and introduction of advanced LCD technologies, such as QDEF, MiniLED, and QD-OLED, will help sustain the LCD TV market share. However, the share of LCD TVs within the entire TV market, including non-Advanced TVs, may gradually decrease as alternative display technologies become more affordable and widespread.
In general, advanced TV shipments are expected to decline in 2023, followed by a resumption of growth in 2024. This growth will be driven by factors such as increasing volumes, larger screen sizes, and the introduction of new technologies. Despite the anticipated decline in market share for Western Europe and North America, they are forecasted to remain the largest markets for Advanced TVs. Asia is predicted to grow faster, leading to a reduced combined share for Western Europe and North America.
| Key Points | Figures/Details |
|---|---|
| Advanced TV shipment growth | Decline in 2023, resume growth in 2024 |
| Revenues by 2027 | $30.9 billion |
| OLED TV revenues in 2027 | $13.5 billion (9% growth) |
| Advanced LCD TV revenues in 2027 | $16.3 billion (4% growth) |
| MicroLED revenue in Advanced TV | $1.1 billion (4% of revenues, 0.1% of units) |
| Largest Advanced TV markets | Western Europe & North America |
| Combined share decline | Faster growth in Asia |
| QD-OLED TV shipments in 2027 | 1.2 million units |
| Competing technologies in premium TV market | MiniLED, White OLED, QD-OLED |
| LCD TV share in Advanced TV | >50% unit share |
The question is, will these market dynamics push OLED prices down as manufacturers look to accelerate that transition and gain market share in anticipation of an upturn? The premium market is unlikely to suffer in all of this, but it is very low volume by comparison.
